Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.2%
- Current value
- $327.39
- Potential payout
- $3.58K
- Potential profit
- $3.25K
- Multiplier
- 10.93x
- User PnL
- $17.4
Polymarket Trader
crayven
0x2aacd459eaea420eb0d7b94c7b03238786c6dfad
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.79K
- Realized PnL
- $14.65K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 6.1%
- Current value
- $196.44
- Potential payout
- $3.25K
- Potential profit
- $3.05K
- Multiplier
- 16.53x
- User PnL
- $42.31
No position
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $920.81
- Potential profit
- $920.81
- User PnL
- -$160
N
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Current value
- $856.33
- Potential payout
- $910.02
- Potential profit
- $53.69
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $56.33
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $714.29
- User PnL
- -$10
Y
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 66%
- Current value
- $440.68
- Potential payout
- $667.7
- Potential profit
- $227.02
- Multiplier
- 1.52x
- User PnL
- $153.18
Y
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $518.96
- Potential payout
- $519.48
- Potential profit
- $0.52
- User PnL
- $118.96
Yes position
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.3%
- Current value
- $188.43
- Potential payout
- $505.18
- Potential profit
- $316.75
- Multiplier
- 2.68x
- User PnL
- -$21.57
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $414.04
- Potential profit
- $414.04
- User PnL
- -$96.15
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $384.46
- Potential profit
- $384.46
- User PnL
- -$220
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $367.56
- Potential profit
- $367.56
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $301.65
- Potential payout
- $329.67
- Potential profit
- $28.02
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.65
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $112.81
- Potential payout
- $259.33
- Potential profit
- $146.52
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$11.67
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $117.75
- Potential payout
- $258.79
- Potential profit
- $141.04
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- $17.75
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $195.4
- Potential payout
- $200.31
- Potential profit
- $4.91
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $95.4
Yes position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $87.02
- Potential payout
- $200.05
- Potential profit
- $113.03
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$13.98
Yes position
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 64%
- Current value
- $119.23
- Potential payout
- $186.29
- Potential profit
- $67.06
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- $14.23
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $174.18
- Potential payout
- $177.64
- Potential profit
- $3.46
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $24.17
Yes position
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $170.7
- Potential profit
- $170.7
- User PnL
- -$50
N
No position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $154.13
- Potential payout
- $158.73
- Potential profit
- $4.6
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $54.13
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $156.28
- Potential profit
- $156.28
- User PnL
- -$70
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $156.26
- Potential profit
- $156.26
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$30
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will no vote occur on a new funding bill by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72K
Yes position
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35K
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17K
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.16K
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $920.8
No position
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $765.45
Senate position
Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $652.01
Yes position
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $578.86
Yes position
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $475.8
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $470.9
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $383.65
Yes position
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $352.74
No position
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $350.62
Yes position
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $346.33
No position
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $335.98
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $207.25
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?
Ends Nov 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.12
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.06
Yes position
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.73
Yes position
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?
Ends Jul 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.75
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.52
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.06
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 48% 10 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 48% 41 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 38.6% 258.79 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 48% 208.33 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 31% 32.26 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?No 91% 219.78 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 64% 15.63 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?No 91% 109.89 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 8% 17.48 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 92% 10.87 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 94.9% 105.37 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 73% 136.99 shares