Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $27.13
- Potential payout
- $713.82
- Potential profit
- $686.7
- Multiplier
- 26.32x
- User PnL
- $2.13
Polymarket Trader
0x2b10...5e63
0x2b10784e513cd1dbe22399b80ca63765b15b5e63
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $89.99
- Realized PnL
- $232.05
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $9.33
- Potential payout
- $124.38
- Potential profit
- $115.05
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.62
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $2.84
- Potential payout
- $68.49
- Potential profit
- $65.65
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$2.16
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.6%
- Current value
- $10.99
- Potential payout
- $56.21
- Potential profit
- $45.22
- Multiplier
- 5.12x
- User PnL
- $1.04
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $4.72
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $50.83
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.9%
- Current value
- $9.92
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $45.64
- Multiplier
- 5.60x
- User PnL
- $4.92
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $5.03
- Potential payout
- $52.94
- Potential profit
- $47.91
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$3.97
Yes position
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $3.07
- Potential payout
- $47.22
- Potential profit
- $44.15
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $5.76
- Potential payout
- $42.64
- Potential profit
- $36.89
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$18.12
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $3.65
- Potential payout
- $38.38
- Potential profit
- $34.73
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$3.86
Yes position
Epstein client list released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.49
- Potential payout
- $36.36
- Potential profit
- $35.87
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$1.51
Yes position
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $3.73
- Potential payout
- $35.71
- Potential profit
- $31.98
- Multiplier
- 9.57x
- User PnL
- $1.73
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.2
- Potential payout
- $12.65
- Potential profit
- $11.45
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $11.83
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
Yes position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.71
- Potential profit
- $9.71
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.15
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $0.82
- Potential payout
- $7.17
- Potential profit
- $6.34
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$1.33
Yes position
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $4.92
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.36
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $43.3
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.85
Yes position
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.43
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18
Yes position
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.33
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.64
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.62
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.45
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.36
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.49
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- $0.97
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
Yes position
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Yes 0.7% 66.66 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 1% 121.95 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 17% 52.94 shares
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 14.4% 62.18 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-16?Yes 67% 10.45 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026?No 9% 55.56 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?No 9% 55.56 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 8.2% 121.95 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 3.3% 611.46 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026?No 10.9% 45.83 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026?No 15% 33.33 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026?No 11% 45.37 shares