No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $581.09
- Potential profit
- $581.09
- User PnL
- -$4
Polymarket Trader
krauzo
0x2bc3bdc4b3f7461e807f3c3c0087d212b678a7b3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $473.97
- Realized PnL
- $1.69K
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $294.51
- Potential payout
- $365.85
- Potential profit
- $71.34
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$5.49
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.4%
- Current value
- $179.46
- Potential payout
- $217.92
- Potential profit
- $38.46
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$0.54
N
No position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $64.94
- Potential profit
- $64.94
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.56
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.1
- Potential profit
- $41.1
- User PnL
- -$3
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $36.59
- Potential profit
- $36.59
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $33.33
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $221.25
No position
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $188.8
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.84
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.54
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
Ends Jun 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.81
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.88
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.3
No position
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.21
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.02
Yes position
Biden drops out of presidential race?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.72
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.7
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.86
No position
CrowdStrike outage fixed by Friday night?
Ends Jul 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.63
Yes position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?
Ends Jun 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $47.9
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.12
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.05
No position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.39
No position
Biden drops out of presidential race?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.48
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.61
No position
Will Iran strike Oman in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $25.92
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.82
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.47
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.56
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.68
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Yes 2% 50 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No 82.6% 217.92 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 82% 365.85 shares
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?No 77% 64.94 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 97.6% 78.94 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 38% 78.95 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 8.2% 36.59 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 0.2% 500 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 3.7% 81.08 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 96.4% 448.06 shares
- Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?Yes 7% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 82.8% 327.29 shares