StephanieWoods6912

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $250.09
Potential payout: $253
Potential profit: $2.91
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $253
Potential profit: $253
User PnL: -$4.05

Yes position

Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $198.09
Potential profit: $198.09
User PnL: -$2.66

Yes position

Will NFT #1990 win the Based trading competition?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $165
Potential profit: $165
User PnL: -$4.13

No position

Will "Footballer" be said during the World Cup Draw on December 5?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $160
User PnL: -$14.24

No position

Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$88.36

Yes position

Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147
Potential profit: $147
User PnL: -$49.98

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $131
Potential profit: $131
User PnL: -$4.06

No position

Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 93m?

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $130
User PnL: -$27.5

Yes position

Brex IPO in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $108
Potential profit: $108
User PnL: -$1.62

Yes position

Julie Masino out as Cracker Barrel CEO in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $91
Potential profit: $91
User PnL: -$1.82

No position

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 25-December 1?

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $80
User PnL: -$34.4

Yes position

Vanta IPO in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $74
Potential profit: $74
User PnL: -$1.7

No position

Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 28–29%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $68
Potential profit: $68
User PnL: -$1.63

Yes position

Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62
Potential profit: $62
User PnL: -$0.87

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62
Potential profit: $62
User PnL: -$44.02

Yes position

Will Do Kwon be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$12.6

No position

Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51
Potential profit: $51
User PnL: -$35.19

No position

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $45
User PnL: -$2.8

Yes position

Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $39
User PnL: -$1.23

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33
Potential profit: $33
User PnL: -$5.31

No position

Will Do Kwon be sentenced to 12+ years in prison?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32
Potential profit: $32
User PnL: -$27.2

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32
Potential profit: $32
User PnL: -$1.02

Yes position

Will November 2025 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32
Potential profit: $32
User PnL: -$1.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

Implied probability: 82%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $190.19

Yes position

Will Trump say "Sarah" or "Beckstrom" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.99

No position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win more than 62.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $94.6

Yes position

Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $83

No position

Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.76

No position

Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $77.41

No position

Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.87

No position

Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.34

Yes position

Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 38.4%
Multiplier: 2.61x
User PnL: $64.51

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "hell" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.72

No position

Will Orwell: 2+2=5 be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.77

Yes position

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 9%
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: $58.76

Yes position

Will Taiki Maeda win the Orderly trading competition?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.62

No position

CBB mindshare all time high by March 31?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.28

Yes position

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.24

Yes position

Will Kanye West release an album in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.62

Yes position

Will Steve Cohen and Seminole Hard Rock Entertainment receive a license for Metropolitan Park casino in Queens?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.13

No position

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Sep 8, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: $31.67

No position

Will Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.34

No position

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.4

No position

Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.84

No position

Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.23

Yes position

Celonis IPO before 2027?