Polymarket Trader

Paulytrader

0x2c8a45ae5568fe2ca02c041c29fb6b07c8a65d15

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $925.14
Realized PnL: -$25.9
Win rate: 42.9%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 14
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $242.31
Potential payout: $629.38
Potential profit: $387.07
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$75.43

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $329.56
Potential payout: $535.87
Potential profit: $206.31
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $77.65

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $49.49
Potential payout: $299.91
Potential profit: $250.43
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$89.47

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $166.93
Potential payout: $199.92
Potential profit: $32.99
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $96.63

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $49.44
Potential payout: $96
Potential profit: $46.56
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $7.2

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $46.56
Potential payout: $96
Potential profit: $49.44
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $23.4
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $16.6
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $12.56
Potential payout: $30.26
Potential profit: $17.7
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $2.26

No position

Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.65
Potential profit: $13.65
User PnL: -$2.55

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $1.78
Potential payout: $4.89
Potential profit: $3.11
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$0.66

Down position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $3.1
Potential payout: $4.88
Potential profit: $1.78
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $1.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.48

Yes position

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.1%
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $3.21

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 34%
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: $0.2

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 71.5%
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: -$1.03

No position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$1.4

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$3.6

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$4

Down position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.24

No position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.3

Down position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$113.69

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?

Yes 16% 20 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 16?

Down 49% 100 shares
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?

No 41% 20 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 16?

Up 63% 9.65 shares
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 16?

No 40% 20 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 16?

Down 43% 100.08 shares
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 16?

Up 55% 15.11 shares
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?

Yes 84% 34.75 shares
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?

Yes 85% 11.36 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?

No 49% 4 shares
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?

Yes 73% 25 shares
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?

Yes 75.7% 26.25 shares