Polymarket Trader

misterwilly

0x2d78182debee105eceff85b5f898542af65d5b09

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $76.93
Realized PnL: $1.33K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $659.75
Potential profit: $659.75
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $291.67
Potential profit: $291.67
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $280
Potential profit: $280
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$2

No position

ChatGPT Outage by May 1?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $228.35
Potential profit: $228.35
User PnL: -$1.92

No position

Will Trump dance today?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.08
Potential profit: $192.08
User PnL: -$1.92

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $10.06
Potential payout: $167.64
Potential profit: $157.58
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$1.94

Yes position

James Norton announced as next James Bond?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.79
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.93

Yes position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $133.33
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $133.33
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $129.27
Potential profit: $127.26
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.43
Potential payout: $124.01
Potential profit: $123.58
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$3.57

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $11.18
Potential payout: $117.65
Potential profit: $106.47
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$8.82

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will "Table" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experience?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $53.18
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $37.73
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $3.18

Yes position

Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in September?

Ends Oct 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $85.83
Potential profit: $85.83
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Taylor Swift announce a new song today?

Ends Aug 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Khamenei before August?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $74.81
Potential profit: $74.81
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.86
Potential profit: $72.86
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.5
Potential profit: $72.5
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $161.73

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.36

Yes position

Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.9

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.55

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.58

Yes position

Will Trump say 'Canada' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Ends Mar 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.34

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64

Yes position

300+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?

Ends Mar 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.91

Yes position

Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.29

Yes position

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.56

Yes position

Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.92

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.15

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.62

Yes position

Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.81

Yes position

Will Trump say "Beautiful" 3+ times during his presser with Ireland PM?

Ends Mar 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.34

Yes position

Will Trump say 'DEI' or 'diversity, equity, and inclusion' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Ends Mar 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35

Yes position

Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40 and 50?

Ends Apr 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.74

Yes position

Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $34.19

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating be 45.0% or higher on May 16?

Ends May 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.42

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.9% on May 2?

Ends May 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.91

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "Reserve" during Crypto Summit on Friday?

Ends Mar 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.89

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.26

Yes position

Bitcoin all time high in May?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.34

Yes position

Will the Black Woman statue be removed from Times Square early?

Ends Jun 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.7

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Nothing Ever Happens: July

Nothing 79% 246.91 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?

Yes 69% 42.43 shares
Nothing Ever Happens: July

Nothing 81% 246.91 shares
Trump out as President by July 31?

Yes 1.6% 62.5 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?

Yes 8% 25 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Yes 3.8% 26.46 shares
James Comey charges dropped by July 31?

Yes 8% 12.5 shares
James Comey charges dropped by July 31?

Yes 7% 14.29 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?

Yes 7.1% 42.43 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?

Yes 14.4% 6.94 shares
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m?

Yes 17% 5.88 shares
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Yes 6.4% 155.14 shares