Polymarket Trader

4rchelon

0x2dbf7a3402a7b8ba70be1f110a36a46d8350009f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $607.83
Realized PnL: $315.14
Win rate: 85.7%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 7
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56K
Potential profit: $55.56K
User PnL: -$499.99

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $171.88
Potential payout: $6.25K
Potential profit: $6.08K
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $71.88

Yes position

Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.1%
Current value: $92.86
Potential payout: $840.34
Potential profit: $747.48
Multiplier: 9.05x
User PnL: -$7.14

Yes position

Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $822.23
Potential profit: $822.23
User PnL: -$74

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $714.29
Potential profit: $714.29
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $88.5
Potential payout: $277.01
Potential profit: $188.5
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: -$11.5

Yes position

Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 10, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $84.95
Potential payout: $178.85
Potential profit: $93.9
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$15.05

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $170
User PnL: -$28.9

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $22.5
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $144.17
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$2.5

No position

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $85.16
Potential payout: $156.25
Potential profit: $71.09
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$14.84

Yes position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$11.1

Yes position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 8.2%
Current value: $10.87
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $122.47
Multiplier: 12.27x
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$38

Yes position

Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$8.5

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$9

Yes position

Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$5.5

No position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $25.22
Potential payout: $43.1
Potential profit: $17.89
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 61.1%
Current value: $24.78
Potential payout: $40.58
Potential profit: $15.81
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$4.4

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $1.13
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $23.88
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$2.63

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$6.5

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.07
Potential profit: $17.07
User PnL: -$4.95

Yes position

Maduro mugshot released by Monday?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.56
Potential profit: $2.56
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.27

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.57

Yes position

Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25

No position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 81.3%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $9.75

No position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 84.1%
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $5.5

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 68.1%
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: -$4.95

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

No 64% 156.25 shares
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?

Yes 55.9% 178.85 shares
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 7.5% 133.33 shares
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 61.6% 40.58 shares
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 58% 43.1 shares
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 11.9% 840.34 shares
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?

Yes 15% 166.67 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?

Yes 57% 34.65 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?

Yes 29% 17.24 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?

Yes 29% 34.48 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?

Yes 44% 227.27 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 36.1% 277.01 shares