heibenxiong

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $249.99
Potential profit: $249.74
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$5.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $151.31
Potential profit: $151.16
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$4.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.93
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.43

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.93
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.93

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.93
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.93

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.93
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.93

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.78
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.93
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.43

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $6.75
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $143.25
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $149.99
Potential profit: $149.92
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.57

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $149.99
Potential profit: $149.92
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.72

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $2.47
Potential payout: $149.99
Potential profit: $147.51
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$2.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $149.99
Potential profit: $149.91
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.42

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $3.75
Potential payout: $149.98
Potential profit: $146.23
Multiplier: 40.00x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $2.25
Potential payout: $149.97
Potential profit: $147.72
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$2.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $3.85
Potential payout: $101.42
Potential profit: $97.57
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: $1.83

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.95

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $98.8
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$1.9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.89
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$2.9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $4.52
Potential payout: $58.32
Potential profit: $53.8
Multiplier: 12.90x
User PnL: $2.77

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 7.9%
Current value: $3.25
Potential payout: $41.44
Potential profit: $38.19
Multiplier: 12.74x
User PnL: $1.97

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 4AM ET

Ends Dec 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.39K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.24K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $589.06

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $429.19

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $399.84

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $375.49

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Ends Dec 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $366.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $358.34

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $349.78

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $345.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 12PM ET

Ends Dec 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $319.21

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $289.69

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.42

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $227.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $224.98

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 12AM ET

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $214.68

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 12AM ET

Ends Dec 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $207.64

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $201.21

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

Ends Dec 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Ends Dec 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET