Polymarket Trader

0x2dE92aE2318EB96A5580b803F6fd31A5AC08dB17-1771498492186

0x2de92ae2318eb96a5580b803f6fd31a5ac08db17

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $58.44
Realized PnL: -$56.63
Win rate: 20.8%
Open positions: 9
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $588.24
Potential profit: $588.24
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $291.28
Potential profit: $291.28
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $175
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $1

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $127.51
Potential profit: $127.51
User PnL: -$10

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120.62
Potential profit: $120.62
User PnL: -$8.95

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $33.1
Potential payout: $55.64
Potential profit: $22.53
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $23.1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.31
Potential profit: $42.31
User PnL: -$11

No position

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $5.13
Potential profit: $4.79
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$1.67

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.5

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.85

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.59

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.93

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: -$0.12

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump post "Hell" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.79

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.68

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 19?

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.01

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.85

Yes position

Crude Oil all time high by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$8.7

Yes position

Will Russia enter Stinky by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10.6

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$12

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$135.96

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 18% 55.64 shares
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Yes 1.7% 291.28 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 1.7% 588.24 shares
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?

Yes 26% 42.31 shares
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?

No 7.4% 120.62 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

No 99.2% 71.42 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

No 9.9% 151.52 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

Yes 0.4% 37.89 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

Yes 0.3% 5,072.29 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

Yes 1.8% 2,816.05 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

Yes 4.5% 2,236.24 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

Yes 18.5% 37.89 shares