Jimmybear

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.53K
Potential profit: $12.53K
User PnL: -$42.83

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.72K
Potential profit: $6.72K
User PnL: -$33.25

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.43K
Potential profit: $6.43K
User PnL: -$17.92

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.16K
Potential profit: $6.16K
User PnL: -$11.99

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.42K
Potential profit: $4.42K
User PnL: -$11.52

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.84K
Potential profit: $2.84K
User PnL: -$18.55

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $15.24
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $1.89K
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$0.31

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.75K
Potential profit: $1.75K
User PnL: -$23.17

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.53K
Potential profit: $1.53K
User PnL: -$11.24

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.32K
Potential profit: $1.32K
User PnL: -$12.28

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.16K
Potential profit: $1.16K
User PnL: -$12.83

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.64
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $1.05K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$3.09

Yes position

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $1.03K
User PnL: -$5.21

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $5.39
Potential payout: $979.85
Potential profit: $974.46
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $2.42

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $10.22
Potential payout: $817.79
Potential profit: $807.57
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $5.32
Potential payout: $709.78
Potential profit: $704.46
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$2.69

Yes position

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $4.2
Potential payout: $646.55
Potential profit: $642.35
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.35
Potential payout: $522.01
Potential profit: $519.67
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$3.91

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $16.18
Potential payout: $513.81
Potential profit: $497.62
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$9.23

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $510.09
Potential profit: $510.09
User PnL: -$9.23

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $489.34
Potential profit: $489.34
User PnL: -$2.8

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $450
User PnL: -$1.21

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $14.75
Potential payout: $427.42
Potential profit: $412.68
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $7.9
Potential payout: $395
Potential profit: $387.1
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$0.88

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $3.46
Potential payout: $363.75
Potential profit: $360.29
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$2.21

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $297.65
Potential profit: $297.65
User PnL: -$1.77

Yes position

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $2.31
Potential payout: $242.99
Potential profit: $240.68
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $3.34
Potential payout: $222.9
Potential profit: $219.56
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: $2.3

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $213.14
Potential profit: $213.14
User PnL: -$1.03

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $210.01
Potential profit: $210.01
User PnL: -$5.11

Yes position

Netanyahu out by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.73
Potential profit: $181.73
User PnL: -$2.12

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $180
Potential profit: $178.11
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $0.78

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $3.8
Potential payout: $168.77
Potential profit: $164.98
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$0.7

Yes position

Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.92
Potential payout: $167.29
Potential profit: $165.37
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$1.23

Yes position

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $4.25
Potential payout: $157.5
Potential profit: $153.25
Multiplier: 37.04x
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $5.42
Potential payout: $153.04
Potential profit: $147.62
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$2.62

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $140.65
Potential profit: $140.65
User PnL: -$3.91

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $136.85
Potential profit: $136.85
User PnL: -$4.14

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $132.5
Potential profit: $132.5
User PnL: -$5.42

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $2.14
Potential payout: $125.94
Potential profit: $123.8
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $108.65
Potential profit: $108
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$3.35

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$3.2

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $99.94
Potential profit: $99.69
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $85.04
Potential profit: $85.04
User PnL: -$2.22

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.75
Potential profit: $83.75
User PnL: -$0.62

No position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.82
Potential profit: $81.82
User PnL: -$1.04

No position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.26
Potential profit: $81.26
User PnL: -$3.9

Yes position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.41
Potential payout: $81.25
Potential profit: $80.84
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$2.13

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $463.43

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $461.14

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $394.28

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $274.48

Yes position

Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $258.4

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $192.12

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $139.48

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $134.14

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.73

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $113.89

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $113.01

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $105.77

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $97.97

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.27

Yes position

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $82.52

Yes position

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $82.4

Yes position

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $76.64

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $72.45

No position

Will Iran strike UAE again in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $67.52

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $63.22

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $58.36

Yes position

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $56.76

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $54.78

No position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.47

Yes position

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $49.37

Yes position

Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $49.34

Yes position

Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.94

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.47

Yes position

Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.71

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36.24

Yes position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $34.59

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $32.64

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $31.63

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.83

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $30.51

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $30.28

Yes position

Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.04

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.93

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.9

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $27.56

No position

Will AMC Entertainment (AMC) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $26.53

No position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $26.12

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $24.5

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.53

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.08

No position

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $22.97

No position

US strikes Iraq by March 7?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $21.11

Yes position

Will MrBeast's latest video get 41 million or more views on week 1?