Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.86K
- Potential profit
- $10.86K
- User PnL
- -$1.6K
Polymarket Trader
Solalpha
0x2ebb95916d75691271c1c151f99df4def77f0614
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $117.34
- Realized PnL
- $5.96K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.8K
- Potential profit
- $6.8K
- User PnL
- -$913.01
Yes position
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.39K
- Potential profit
- $3.39K
- User PnL
- -$192.6
Y
Yes position
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.61K
- Potential profit
- $2.61K
- User PnL
- -$113.53
Yes position
Iran Nuke in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.34K
- Potential profit
- $2.34K
- User PnL
- -$396
Yes position
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.32K
- Potential profit
- $2.32K
- User PnL
- -$60
Yes position
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.27K
- Potential profit
- $1.27K
- User PnL
- -$140
Yes position
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $74.67
- Potential payout
- $1.24K
- Potential profit
- $1.17K
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- -$278.18
Yes position
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.17K
- User PnL
- -$226
Yes position
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 7, 2026?
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $995.02
- Potential profit
- $995.02
- User PnL
- -$202.69
Yes position
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $967.82
- Potential profit
- $967.82
- User PnL
- -$263.1
Yes position
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $20.05
- Potential payout
- $954.95
- Potential profit
- $934.9
- Multiplier
- 47.62x
- User PnL
- -$87.06
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C or higher on January 13?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $876.72
- Potential profit
- $876.72
- User PnL
- -$37.3
Yes position
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $843.67
- Potential profit
- $843.67
- User PnL
- -$412
Yes position
Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.21
- Potential payout
- $806.72
- Potential profit
- $805.51
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$30.95
No position
Will Trump say "Eagle" in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $785.81
- Potential profit
- $785.81
- User PnL
- -$32.72
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $766.18
- Potential profit
- $766.18
- User PnL
- -$124
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $734.36
- Potential profit
- $734.36
- User PnL
- -$348.16
Yes position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $723.99
- Potential profit
- $723.99
- User PnL
- -$180
Yes position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $700.44
- Potential profit
- $700.44
- User PnL
- -$510
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $692.25
- Potential profit
- $692.25
- User PnL
- -$420
No position
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $615.99
- Potential profit
- $615.99
- User PnL
- -$166.38
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$240
Yes position
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.6%
- Current value
- $21.41
- Potential payout
- $594.83
- Potential profit
- $573.42
- Multiplier
- 27.78x
- User PnL
- -$63.81
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $746.05
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $484.91
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $443.31
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $402.87
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $381.69
No position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $363.42
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $337.55
Yes position
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $294.86
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $281.6
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $213.41
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $202.42
No position
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190.29
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $181.37
Yes position
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.37
Yes position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $175.21
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $175.07
No position
Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during statement on April 9?
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.62
No position
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.64
Yes position
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.34
No position
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.51
Yes position
Will Trump say "Movie star" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.77
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.19
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $99.84
Yes position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No 26% 60 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No 25% 5 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No 43% 68.86 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 68.8% 40.59 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes 9% 200 shares
- Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?Yes 74.1% 113 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No 25% 35.94 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?Yes 7.5% 102 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026?No 73% 15.23 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No 25% 48 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes 10% 200 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 0.8% 250 shares