Yes position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$93.5
Polymarket Trader
Alathen
0x2ee4dd355d68a008b60bd7f90cedc4614c5c6f6b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $101.29
- Realized PnL
- $507.84
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $89.1
- Potential payout
- $179.99
- Potential profit
- $90.9
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $37.8
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $160
- User PnL
- -$80.2
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $158.31
- Potential profit
- $158.31
- User PnL
- -$93.4
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $125
- User PnL
- -$62.25
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $12.19
- Potential payout
- $18.06
- Potential profit
- $5.87
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $5.55
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $151.54
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.9
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.81
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $42.14
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.14
Yes position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.33
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.25
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.88
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.17
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.25
Y
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $11.2
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.33
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.7
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.5
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.8%
- Multiplier
- 6.35x
- User PnL
- $8.1
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.4
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.47
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.85
Y
Yes position
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.7%
- Multiplier
- 8.55x
- User PnL
- $3.15
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.14
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.86
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.74
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 5% 60 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 5% 80 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 16% 50 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Yes 4% 50 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 25% 39.8 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 71% 60.97 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?Yes 50% 8.22 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 66% 40 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Yes 26% 100 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Yes 34% 40 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Yes 80% 54.23 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes 37% 55 shares