Polymarket Trader

pein.rikudo

0x2ef3b40b0a3ee48085b27b11cc182bf5f18ab420

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $425.66
Realized PnL: $200.96
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $49.48
Potential payout: $116.41
Potential profit: $66.94
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$30.16

Yes position

Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $14.75
Potential payout: $89.4
Potential profit: $74.65
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

Will "Michael" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $19.5
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $55.5
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: $14.5

Yes position

Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $5.77
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $49.23
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$5.03

No position

Maduro guilty of all counts?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $43
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $7
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $8.9

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.4%
Current value: $46.68
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $3.33
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.17

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $45.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $4.75
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $3.95

Yes position

Will "Dune: Messiah" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $33.73
Potential payout: $49.97
Potential profit: $16.24
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: -$4.24

No position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.1%
Current value: $44.2
Potential payout: $47
Potential profit: $2.8
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.43

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $24.08
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $20.93
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$4.37

No position

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $37.35
Potential payout: $42.2
Potential profit: $4.85
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $5.41

No position

Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 90.1%
Current value: $34.72
Potential payout: $38.56
Potential profit: $3.84
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $2.1

No position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $27.15
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $2.85
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.35

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Timothée Chalamet win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.8

No position

Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: $29.16

Yes position

Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.73

No position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $26.1

Yes position

Will Severance be nominated for Best Ensemble in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.74

Yes position

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.36

Yes position

Will Abbott Elementary be nominated for Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.76

Yes position

Will The Studio be nominated for Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.31

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $5.2

No position

Will Pluribus win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.42

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.39

Yes position

Will Nina Gold (Hamnet) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.15

Yes position

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 37%
Multiplier: 2.70x
User PnL: $2.92

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.6

Yes position

Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.6

Yes position

Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.92

Yes position

Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.87

No position

Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.86

No position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14

Yes position

Will The Studio win Best Comedy Series at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?

Ends Jan 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12

Yes position

Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1

No position

Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.94

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.77

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Yes 69% 11.8 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 65% 36.02 shares
Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Yes 74% 14.6 shares
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

No 31% 70 shares
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

No 0.8% 60 shares
Will "Dune: Messiah" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Yes 77% 15.2 shares
Will "Dune: Messiah" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Yes 76% 26.6 shares
Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Yes 84% 10.6 shares
Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Yes 81.5% 19.42 shares
Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Yes 76% 15 shares
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

No 72% 20 shares
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

No 71% 5 shares