Polymarket Trader

ilmari99

0x2ef6acb2142bbb17608df9619d0eba29fa52c761

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.13K
Realized PnL: $3.04K
Win rate: 95.8%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $61.2
Potential payout: $2.23K
Potential profit: $2.16K
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$38.8

No position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $986.49
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $364.86
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: -$13.51

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.47
Potential payout: $314.95
Potential profit: $314.48
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$199.53

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.3%
Current value: $16.82
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $165
Multiplier: 10.81x
User PnL: -$3.18

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $3.52
Potential payout: $86.96
Potential profit: $83.43
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$16.48

No position

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $50.59
Potential payout: $67
Potential profit: $16.42
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $1.01

Yes position

X banned in any European country by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $9.15
Potential payout: $41.61
Potential profit: $32.46
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$10.85

Tian position

Set Handicap: Tian (-1.5) vs Korneeva (+1.5)

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $889.66

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $365.1

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $312.25

No position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $291.02

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $244.44

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $214.87

No position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.3

Finland position

World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.77

No position

Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.24

Yes position

Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.23

No position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $59.51

No position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52

Yes position

Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.43

Yes position

Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.82

Yes position

Elon out of Trump administration before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.39

No position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

No position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.15

Yes position

Will Trump say "Hitler" during Georgia rally on October 28?

Ends Oct 28, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.11

No position

Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.71

No position

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.49

No position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.69

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.34

Yes position

Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

No 74% 57.5 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Yes 4.5% 2,225.51 shares
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

No 74% 1,351.35 shares
Set Handicap: Tian (-1.5) vs Korneeva (+1.5)

Tian 10% 10 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 92.6% 1,176.47 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 17% 1,176.47 shares
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland

Finland 47% 212.77 shares
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

No 99.8% 592.3 shares
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 24% 208.33 shares
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

No 47.6% 364.29 shares
X banned in any European country by December 31?

Yes 48.1% 41.61 shares
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

No 29.2% 685.43 shares