web5

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $11.32
Potential payout: $1.74K
Potential profit: $1.73K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $0.87

No position

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $459.86
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.21K
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$283.98

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.9%
Current value: $111.23
Potential payout: $938.66
Potential profit: $827.43
Multiplier: 8.44x
User PnL: $5.04

No position

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $516.1
Potential payout: $742.69
Potential profit: $226.6
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$91.3

No position

GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $46.39
Potential payout: $579.92
Potential profit: $533.53
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$193.22

No position

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $287.02
Potential payout: $557.32
Potential profit: $270.3
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$116.03

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $412.17
Potential payout: $455.44
Potential profit: $43.27
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $51.94

No position

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $347.33
Potential payout: $353.7
Potential profit: $6.37
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $80.55

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $253.66
Potential payout: $293.25
Potential profit: $39.59
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $56.64

No position

Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $170.45
Potential payout: $274.92
Potential profit: $104.47
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: $30.31

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $205.01
Potential payout: $251.58
Potential profit: $46.57
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $5.01

No position

Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $143.54
Potential payout: $239.23
Potential profit: $95.69
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: $13.77

No position

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $123.27
Potential payout: $200.44
Potential profit: $77.17
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $57.46

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $118.01
Potential payout: $167.39
Potential profit: $49.38
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $19.91

Yes position

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $1.75
Potential payout: $139.71
Potential profit: $137.97
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: $0.07

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $120.34
Potential payout: $120.64
Potential profit: $0.3
User PnL: $11.07

No position

Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30?

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $67.24
Potential payout: $68.65
Potential profit: $1.41
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.15

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 15.1%
Current value: $10.22
Potential payout: $67.9
Potential profit: $57.68
Multiplier: 6.64x
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $45.6
Potential payout: $50.11
Potential profit: $4.51
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $14.91

Yes position

Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $33.28
Potential payout: $50.08
Potential profit: $16.8
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$5.94

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $31.51
Potential payout: $42.87
Potential profit: $11.36
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $1.73

Yes position

Will Trump deport 400-500k people?

Implied probability: 37%
Current value: $13.84
Potential payout: $37.4
Potential profit: $23.56
Multiplier: 2.70x
User PnL: $4.49

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $34.87
Potential profit: $34.71
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$12.4

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $21.2
Potential payout: $31.4
Potential profit: $10.2
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $1.73

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.56K

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.31K

Astralis position

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61K

Under position

Juventus FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48K

Yes position

Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.42K

MOUZ position

Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $939.65

Yes position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $916.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $806.86

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $806.52

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 79.3%
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $742.84

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $742.46

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $654.44

Warriors position

Warriors vs. Nuggets

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $627.69

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $520.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $514.31

Aurora Gaming position

Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $494.07

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $487.44

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $480.53

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 2PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $465.37

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $463.93

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 1PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $460.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $445.05

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $443.24

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?