Polymarket Trader

caaeth

0x2f76fc670a0bc97cdcbe20823a20dab70f357bcc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $8.13K
Realized PnL: $5.02K
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.75K
Potential profit: $8.75K
User PnL: -$78.78

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $275
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.73K
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$2.23K

No position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $4.73K
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $275
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.23K

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $68.67
Potential payout: $4.58K
Potential profit: $4.51K
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$13.01

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $187.94
Potential payout: $2.21K
Potential profit: $2.02K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$917.57

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $2.02K
Potential payout: $2.21K
Potential profit: $187.93
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $917.57

Yes position

Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $186.88
Potential payout: $519.12
Potential profit: $332.24
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $447.49
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $52.5
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $32.5

No position

Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $117.08
Potential payout: $118.14
Potential profit: $1.06
User PnL: $14.29

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $103.06
Potential payout: $109
Potential profit: $5.94
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$63

Yes position

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$53.7

Yes position

Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$25.8

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$7.5

No position

Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $0.69
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $4.87
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.08

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.21K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $458.92

Yes position

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.99

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.52

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.8%
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: $51.98

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.6

Yes position

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $19.81

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.28

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.05

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: $3.28

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.42

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.98

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.86

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.86

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.84

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

No position

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.22

No position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.83

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 1.9% 1,778.21 shares
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 3% 1,281.68 shares
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?

Yes 36% 519.12 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 19.7% 4,332 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 12.4% 1,222 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18.5% 4,332 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 12.9% 1,222 shares
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

No 94.8% 109 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Yes 24% 2,281.98 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?

Yes 12% 415.63 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11?

Up 78% 110.99 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11?

Up 80% 11 shares