Polymarket Trader

casimir529

0x2f901ca5a08111945612a229b0aa4406bc6e90cc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $24.62
Realized PnL: $26.66K
Win rate: 79.2%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $87.39K
Potential profit: $87.39K
User PnL: -$1.25K

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.6K
Potential profit: $43.6K
User PnL: -$2K

Yes position

Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.15K
Potential profit: $40.15K
User PnL: -$10.75K

Yes position

Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.21K
Potential profit: $12.21K
User PnL: -$1K

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.24K
Potential profit: $11.24K
User PnL: -$5.39K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.09K
Potential profit: $7.09K
User PnL: -$4.78K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.94K
Potential profit: $6.94K
User PnL: -$2.6K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.77K
Potential profit: $6.77K
User PnL: -$2.96K

Yes position

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.71K
Potential profit: $5.71K
User PnL: -$2K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.18K
Potential profit: $4.18K
User PnL: -$956.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.87K
Potential profit: $3.87K
User PnL: -$1.97K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.91K
Potential profit: $1.91K
User PnL: -$984.43

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.86K
Potential profit: $1.86K
User PnL: -$931.1

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.54K
Potential profit: $1.54K
User PnL: -$1K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.14K
User PnL: -$198.96

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.4%
Current value: $24.62
Potential payout: $150.12
Potential profit: $125.5
Multiplier: 6.10x
User PnL: -$75.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.9K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.74K

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.42K

Yes position

Will France win?

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.97K

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.55K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.42K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $606.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $565.97

Diane Parry position

Miami Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Diane Parry

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $507.23

Yannick Hanfmann position

Miami Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Leandro Riedi

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $474.69

Ignacio Buse position

Miami Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Coleman Wong

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $436.14

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $389.19

Yes position

Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $328.9

Yes position

Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.9

Yes position

Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.01

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.69

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Over position

France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$89.35

Yes position

Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?

Yes 48% 4,640.25 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 65% 1,538.46 shares
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5

Over 57% 2,280.7 shares
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

Yes 29.8% 10,714.89 shares
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

Yes 28% 5,186.61 shares
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?

Yes 35% 5,714.29 shares
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18?

Yes 8.2% 12,214.88 shares
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?

Yes 83% 3,068.73 shares
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?

Yes 32.6% 3,068.74 shares
Miami Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Coleman Wong

Ignacio Buse 99.9% 978.47 shares
Miami Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Coleman Wong

Ignacio Buse 51.4% 768.47 shares
Miami Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Coleman Wong

Ignacio Buse 69.8% 210 shares