Ruxpin84

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $1.02K
User PnL: -$59.25

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $125
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $875
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$197.5

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $975
Potential profit: $975
User PnL: -$61

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $900
User PnL: -$51

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $11.98
Potential payout: $826.32
Potential profit: $814.33
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$9.42

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $34.02
Potential payout: $756.03
Potential profit: $722.01
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$25.13

Yes position

Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $518.33
Potential profit: $518.33
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $51.81
Potential payout: $518.11
Potential profit: $466.3
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$4.76

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$87.5

Yes position

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $45
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $455
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$17

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $128.2
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $321.8
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $79.21

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $362
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $38
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $83

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $34
Potential payout: $399.99
Potential profit: $365.99
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$46

Yes position

Will someone else be inaugurated?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $348.23
Potential profit: $348.23
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $332.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $19.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $280.5
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$9.5

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $273.12
Potential profit: $273.12
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $3
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $247
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$27

Yes position

Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $249.13
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$3.13

Yes position

Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.48

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.5

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.87

Yes position

Will Trump win 7 swing states?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.18

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33

Yes position

New Trump executive order to restrict voting by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.33

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.97

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.3

Yes position

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.01

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12

No position

Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.5

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.28

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.77

Yes position

Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.41

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?