No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.75K
- Potential profit
- $11.75K
- User PnL
- -$101.94
Polymarket Trader
Raoulre
0x2fb48970f5eb22948e241f3fa696d4a3af6ad8dc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $31.1
- Realized PnL
- $84.75
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.65K
- Potential profit
- $2.65K
- User PnL
- -$54.43
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$28
No position
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $23.62
- Potential payout
- $115.24
- Potential profit
- $91.61
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- $3.52
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $92.87
- Potential profit
- $92.87
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65.22
- Potential profit
- $65.22
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.45
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $32.88
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.55
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $33.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.57
- Potential profit
- $28.57
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Amazon buy TikTok?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.32
- Potential profit
- $26.32
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.08
- Potential profit
- $14.08
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.8
- Potential profit
- $9.8
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $9.09
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?
Ends Jun 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.69
- Potential profit
- $7.69
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $2.35
- Potential payout
- $6.45
- Potential profit
- $4.1
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $6.25
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $6.25
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $5.88
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$1.8
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $4.68
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.33
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.47
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.6
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.45
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.8
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.86
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.21
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.85
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.51
No position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
No position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Israel position
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.89
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Trump x Xi talk before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 43% 2.33 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?No 0.3% 333.33 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?No 31% 6.45 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?No 7% 28.57 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?No 0.5% 2,000 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?No 17% 5.88 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?No 12% 16.67 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?No 5% 40 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?No 0.2% 500 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?No 8% 25 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?No 0.6% 333.33 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ETUp 1% 92.87 shares