No position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $1.68
- Potential payout
- $6.61
- Potential profit
- $4.92
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Polymarket Trader
0x2fc6...7f06
0x2fc6146b9d654f5b9f21f8a78b429bf45d047f06
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $15.52
- Realized PnL
- -$6.23
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 21
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $1.84
- Potential payout
- $4.65
- Potential profit
- $2.81
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
No position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $0.57
- Potential payout
- $3.7
- Potential profit
- $3.13
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$1.43
Yes position
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $2.32
- Potential payout
- $3.05
- Potential profit
- $0.73
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $2.06
- Potential payout
- $3
- Potential profit
- $0.94
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $1.01
No position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?
Ends Jul 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $2.12
- Potential payout
- $2.67
- Potential profit
- $0.55
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $1.57
- Potential payout
- $2.03
- Potential profit
- $0.46
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
No position
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $1.63
- Potential payout
- $2.03
- Potential profit
- $0.39
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $1.73
- Potential payout
- $2.03
- Potential profit
- $0.29
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.11
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.82
Yes position
Will COD Meknès vs. HUS Agadir end in a draw?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03
Ghana position
Spread: England (-1.5)
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63
Y
Yes position
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 32%-34%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.59
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.63
Yes position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on July 13?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.53
No position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on July 6?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Under position
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Under position
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Uzbekistan position
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Over position
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.08
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.29
Down position
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 14?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.3
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.41
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.47
No position
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.53
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.85
Yes position
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.98
No position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No 75% 2.67 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?No 21% 6.1 shares
- Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Yes 62% 3.05 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Yes 35% 3 shares
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?Yes 73% 2.53 shares
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?No 54% 3.7 shares
- Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 14?Down 40% 3.25 shares
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on July 13?Yes 79% 2.53 shares
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?No 80% 2.03 shares
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes 80% 2.03 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?No 28% 6.61 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No 80% 2.03 shares