itxsaw2

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $875.01
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $125
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $233.79

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $595.9
Potential payout: $681.03
Potential profit: $85.13
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $68.73

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $271.48
Potential payout: $299.98
Potential profit: $28.5
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $65.5

Yes position

Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $222.23
Potential payout: $245.56
Potential profit: $23.33
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $20.92

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $113.4
Potential payout: $243.88
Potential profit: $130.48
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $5.6

Yes position

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $160.24
Potential payout: $222.55
Potential profit: $62.31
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $24.8

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $196.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $3.1
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $30.6

Yes position

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $105
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $95
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $20

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$52.04

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 92.8%
Current value: $139.13
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $10.88
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $11.63

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $130
User PnL: -$99.8

No position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $97.79
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $22.21
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $7.99

No position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $110
User PnL: -$90.3

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 11.1%
Current value: $11.1
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $88.9
Multiplier: 9.01x
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $2.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.25
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $56.49
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $43.51
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $16.49

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $78.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $21.5
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $12.5

No position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $94.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $5.55
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $3.35

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$77.24

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 42.8%
Current value: $42.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $57.25
Multiplier: 2.34x
User PnL: -$17.25

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $87.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $12.5
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $93.49
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $6.5
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $15.5

No position

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$42

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.62

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.83

No position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.8

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: $130.8

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $113.66

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $52.76

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.5

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.45

No position

Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.5

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.8

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.55

No position

Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.5

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.1

No position

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

No position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.84

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.2

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.7

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.85

No position

Starmer out by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.74

Yes position

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 2.5%
Multiplier: 40.00x
User PnL: $10

No position

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8

No position

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?