taerv534

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $136.28
Potential payout: $5.05K
Potential profit: $4.91K
Multiplier: 37.04x
User PnL: $87.72

Yes position

Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $30.72
Potential payout: $4.1K
Potential profit: $4.07K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $6.14

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $218.14
Potential payout: $3.58K
Potential profit: $3.36K
Multiplier: 16.39x
User PnL: -$4.6

Yes position

Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.76
Potential payout: $3.52K
Potential profit: $3.51K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$7.28

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.57
Potential payout: $3.14K
Potential profit: $3.14K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$7.45

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.54
Potential payout: $3.08K
Potential profit: $3.08K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.54

Yes position

Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.48
Potential payout: $2.97K
Potential profit: $2.97K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5.24

Yes position

Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $4.24
Potential payout: $2.83K
Potential profit: $2.82K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$3.71

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $9.55
Potential payout: $2.73K
Potential profit: $2.72K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $5.58

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $155.96
Potential payout: $2.62K
Potential profit: $2.47K
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: -$68.89

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $3.77
Potential payout: $2.51K
Potential profit: $2.51K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$3.65

Yes position

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $2.3K
Potential profit: $2.3K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.46

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $3.06
Potential payout: $2.04K
Potential profit: $2.04K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$19.47

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2.53
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.68K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$83.79

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 6.6%
Current value: $108.25
Potential payout: $1.65K
Potential profit: $1.54K
Multiplier: 15.27x
User PnL: $75.36

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.6K
User PnL: -$20.76

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $11.93
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $1.48K
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$9.67

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $40.63
Potential payout: $1.45K
Potential profit: $1.41K
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: -$4.62

Yes position

Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $11.3
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $1.18K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $4.87

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $245.92
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $871.89
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$188.39

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $24.9
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.01K
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: -$5.05

Yes position

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $9.42
Potential payout: $992
Potential profit: $982.58
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $1.49

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.21
Potential payout: $808
Potential profit: $806.78
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$21.19

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $792
Potential profit: $791.6
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$11.83

Yes position

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $7.28
Potential payout: $661.45
Potential profit: $654.18
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$76.15

Yes position

Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $4.16
Potential payout: $639.96
Potential profit: $635.8
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $1.09

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.86
Potential payout: $575.99
Potential profit: $575.12
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$2.59

Yes position

Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $14.12
Potential payout: $556
Potential profit: $541.88
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$14.45

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $6.53
Potential payout: $544
Potential profit: $537.47
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$58.11

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $93.61
Potential payout: $505.99
Potential profit: $412.38
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $7.41

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $343.65
Potential payout: $505.37
Potential profit: $161.72
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $85.69

OpenAI position

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $18.68
Potential payout: $498.02
Potential profit: $479.34
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$2.78

No position

Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $488.68
Potential payout: $492.87
Potential profit: $4.19
User PnL: $178.29

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $2.36
Potential payout: $430
Potential profit: $427.64
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$3.96

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $415.99
Potential profit: $415.78
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.76

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $412
Potential profit: $411.79
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$6.71

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $57.42
Potential payout: $410.11
Potential profit: $352.69
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$8.66

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $8.83
Potential payout: $384
Potential profit: $375.17
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$5.5

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $16.32
Potential payout: $384
Potential profit: $367.68
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$3.14

Yes position

Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $3.01
Potential payout: $376.01
Potential profit: $373
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$2.86

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $363.98
Potential profit: $363.44
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.35

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $17.37
Potential payout: $343.98
Potential profit: $326.61
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: -$3.11

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $194.87
Potential payout: $341.93
Potential profit: $147.06
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: $103.23

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $8.53
Potential payout: $336
Potential profit: $327.47
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: $4.05

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $241.48
Potential payout: $315.66
Potential profit: $74.18
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $21.71

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $239.75
Potential payout: $274
Potential profit: $34.25
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $129.72

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $272.01
Potential profit: $271.06
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $265.99
Potential profit: $265.59
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.64

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $255.38
Potential profit: $255.25
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.98

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $246.14
Potential payout: $247
Potential profit: $0.86
User PnL: $101.59

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.76K

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.74K

No position

Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $5.43K

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.77K

No position

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.98K

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.92K

No position

Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.9K

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.08K

Yes position

Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?

Ends Jan 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.89K

Yes position

Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.73K

Yes position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.58K

Yes position

Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.27K

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.19K

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.19K

Yes position

Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.16K

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08K

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08K

No position

Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.02K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.96K

Yes position

Greg Bovino fired/resigns by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9K

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.89K

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.8K

Yes position

Is there more than 147341858 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.8K

Yes position

Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday?

Ends Dec 13, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.71K

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.66K

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.64K

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.58K

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.58K

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.31K

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23K

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.17K

US position

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.04K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

No position

Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June  27?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $976.44

No position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $881.6

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $880.99

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $788.49

Up position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $746.48

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $745.32

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $734.49

Yes position

Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $718.24

No position

Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $704.32

No position

Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?