No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.93K
- Potential profit
- $8.93K
- User PnL
- -$5K
Polymarket Trader
0x3115E2e9272eE9BD4cea3B571e136C5F412561D5-1767887548283
0x3115e2e9272ee9bd4cea3b571e136c5f412561d5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $20.55K
- Realized PnL
- $5.96K
- Win rate
- 77.8%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 18
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $6.54K
- Potential payout
- $8.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.63K
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- -$468.02
No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.6%
- Current value
- $7.53K
- Potential payout
- $8.14K
- Potential profit
- $606.4
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $533.2
No position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $3.24K
- Potential payout
- $3.77K
- Potential profit
- $528.02
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $243.54
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $2.16K
- Potential payout
- $2.19K
- Potential profit
- $30.71
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $163
No position
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.07K
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $99.8
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $74.35
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.08K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.4K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.13K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.85K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $698.32
No position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $695.45
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $681.82
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $330.73
No position
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $150.78
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.25
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125.7
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.66
No position
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.55
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 2?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$109.99
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$248.85
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026No 35.1% 715.93 shares
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?No 98.1% 8,204.11 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?No 78% 1,287.3 shares
- Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?No 92.2% 1,086.65 shares
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?No 96.3% 8,204.12 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026No 69.8% 715.94 shares
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?No 88.8% 1,125.7 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?No 77.7% 1,287.31 shares
- Will Trump and Putin not meet?Yes 91.2% 2,193.71 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes 96.5% 12,851.41 shares
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes 85.7% 8,169.27 shares
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?No 87.8% 5,695.45 shares