0x3140c81075aa367aaaC40F97Cfc0EE9fED74b176-1764718464081

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $1K
Potential payout: $51.28K
Potential profit: $50.28K
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$1K

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $2.23K
Potential payout: $35.71K
Potential profit: $33.48K
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: -$2.77K

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $3.51K
Potential payout: $33.46K
Potential profit: $29.95K
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$1.49K

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $2.52K
Potential payout: $26.5K
Potential profit: $23.99K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$482.04

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $2.41K
Potential payout: $11.19K
Potential profit: $8.79K
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $906.24

Yes position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $22.79
Potential payout: $4.56K
Potential profit: $4.54K
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$795.2

Yes position

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $8.15
Potential payout: $2.72K
Potential profit: $2.71K
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$91.85

Yes position

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $71.19
Potential payout: $1.23K
Potential profit: $1.16K
Multiplier: 17.24x
User PnL: -$28.81

Yes position

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $3.36
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $1.12K
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$46.64

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $58.89
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $1.02K
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$41.11

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $46.01
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $976.49
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$53.99

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $45.62
Potential payout: $807.37
Potential profit: $761.75
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $7.15
Potential payout: $571.86
Potential profit: $564.71
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$42.85

Yes position

NATO dissolves before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $21.76
Potential payout: $524.4
Potential profit: $502.64
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$28.24

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $422.35
Potential profit: $421.29
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$114.94

Yes position

Will the fight be won by submission?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.31
Potential profit: $192.31
User PnL: -$100

Ilia Topuria position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $154.32
Potential profit: $154.32
User PnL: -$125

Tatsuro Taira position

UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.59
Potential profit: $69.59
User PnL: -$42.45

No position

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$13.5

Yes position

Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.23
Potential profit: $36.23
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.4
Potential profit: $25.4
User PnL: -$21.39

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $466.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.44

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $29.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.15

King Green position

UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.66

Pat Sabatini position

UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.16

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.13

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.16

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.98

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.98

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.87

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET