Yes position
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $7.09
- Potential payout
- $36.36
- Potential profit
- $29.27
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.91
Polymarket Trader
0x3158...9df1
0x31588e10003cc566f4cf025e267fa66dfeb99df1
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $148.43
- Realized PnL
- $330.64
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $33.92
- Potential payout
- $35.89
- Potential profit
- $1.97
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $5.23
No position
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $7.92
- Potential payout
- $15.38
- Potential profit
- $7.46
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $6.13
- Potential payout
- $14.77
- Potential profit
- $8.64
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.7
No position
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $10.43
- Potential payout
- $13.72
- Potential profit
- $3.29
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $3.43
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $7.46
- Potential payout
- $13.21
- Potential profit
- $5.75
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.73
Yes position
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 44%
- Current value
- $5.76
- Potential payout
- $13.1
- Potential profit
- $7.34
- Multiplier
- 2.27x
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $4.9
- Potential payout
- $11.26
- Potential profit
- $6.36
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $1.52
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $4.65
- Potential payout
- $11.2
- Potential profit
- $6.55
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.4
No position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $1.95
- Potential payout
- $10.52
- Potential profit
- $8.57
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
No position
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $8.49
- Potential payout
- $10.11
- Potential profit
- $1.62
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.51
No position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $1.65
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.35
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.65
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 44%
- Current value
- $4.4
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $5.6
- Multiplier
- 2.27x
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $6.03
- Potential payout
- $9.21
- Potential profit
- $3.18
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.97
No position
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $7.14
- Potential payout
- $9.21
- Potential profit
- $2.07
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $3.53
- Potential payout
- $9.18
- Potential profit
- $5.65
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$1.06
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $3.68
- Potential payout
- $8.86
- Potential profit
- $5.18
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $1.73
Yes position
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $1.31
- Potential payout
- $8.44
- Potential profit
- $7.13
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$1.22
Yes position
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $5.33
- Potential payout
- $8.13
- Potential profit
- $2.81
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $0.45
No position
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $4.71
- Potential payout
- $8.13
- Potential profit
- $3.41
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
Yes position
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of July 13 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $2.48
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $5.52
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
No position
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $6.83
- Potential payout
- $7.5
- Potential profit
- $0.67
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.83
Yes position
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $1.31
- Potential payout
- $7.1
- Potential profit
- $5.79
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$3.66
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $1.33
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $5.67
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- $0
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.82
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.15
Yes position
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.8
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.99
Yes position
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of February?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.08
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.06
Yes position
Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.325B?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.89
Yes position
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.84
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.74
Yes position
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.65
No position
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $360 Week of April 13 2026?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.38
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.34
No position
Will Conagra Brands (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.33
Yes position
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close on IPO day?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.18
No position
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.88
No position
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.14
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.03
Yes position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.02
Yes position
AWS service disrupted by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.92
No position
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of April 20 2026?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.88
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.62
Up position
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.4
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.33
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.15
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Yes 30% 7 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?No 65% 7.11 shares
- Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Yes 50% 9.18 shares
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of July 13 2026?Yes 41% 8 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?No 28% 6.61 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Yes 31.6% 7.34 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No 80% 6.08 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?Yes 48% 9.25 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?No 77% 10.13 shares
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes 22% 36.36 shares
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?No 28% 6.75 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Yes 21% 6 shares