No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $193.1
- Potential payout
- $677.79
- Potential profit
- $484.69
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$138.7
Polymarket Trader
Bigsomething
0x318366cb3fe18323f28b294e8f7d987a91a1c5eb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $622.46
- Realized PnL
- $1.23K
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $277.08
- Potential payout
- $371.92
- Potential profit
- $94.84
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $28.28
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $43
- Potential payout
- $315.02
- Potential profit
- $272.02
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$8.34
No position
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $69.75
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $20.25
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $69.75
Y
Yes position
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $35.19
- Potential payout
- $42.65
- Potential profit
- $7.46
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$3.09
Y
Yes position
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $4.33
- Potential payout
- $6.06
- Potential profit
- $1.73
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $0.82
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $272.35
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $171.07
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.91
No position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.34
Yes position
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.1
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $85.89
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $54.79
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.88
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.18
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.93
Yes position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.92
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.8
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.63
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.17
Yes position
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.17
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $12.23
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.95
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.46
No position
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $3.55
Y
Yes position
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 43%
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- $3.3
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.2
Yes position
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 29% 4.45 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 29% 673.34 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 71% 194.41 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 57.2% 116.96 shares
- Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 83.9% 14.43 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 11% 16 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 10.8% 100 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 11% 46 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 10.8% 70 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 11% 5 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 11% 50 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 11% 80 shares