Polymarket Trader

Insider2024

0x319d64b1ebae82c0845aa9af481f6cf12e942538

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $15.84K
Realized PnL: $9.04K
Win rate: 75%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 16
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $1.41K
Potential payout: $51.36K
Potential profit: $49.95K
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $170.31

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $248.84
Potential payout: $19.91K
Potential profit: $19.66K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$51.14

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $12.23K
Potential payout: $15.01K
Potential profit: $2.78K
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$766.51

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.62K
Potential profit: $7.62K
User PnL: -$125

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.63K
Potential profit: $6.63K
User PnL: -$130

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $321.95
Potential payout: $5.37K
Potential profit: $5.04K
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: $101.96

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.98K
Potential profit: $4.98K
User PnL: -$203.99

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.28K
Potential profit: $4.28K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.15K
Potential profit: $4.15K
User PnL: -$90

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.69K
Potential profit: $3.69K
User PnL: -$219.99

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $154.93
Potential payout: $3.57K
Potential profit: $3.41K
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: $34.93

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.96K
Potential profit: $2.96K
User PnL: -$145

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.77K
Potential profit: $2.77K
User PnL: -$700

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.72K
Potential profit: $2.72K
User PnL: -$145

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14.2%
Current value: $356
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.14K
Multiplier: 7.02x
User PnL: -$91.5

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.09K
Potential profit: $2.09K
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.7K
Potential profit: $1.7K
User PnL: -$75

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $1.09K
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $114.46
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $90.36

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $487.81
Potential profit: $487.81
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $373.13
Potential profit: $373.13
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $26.6
Potential payout: $312.89
Potential profit: $286.29
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$23.4

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5?

Ends Mar 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.08
Potential profit: $27.08
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.06K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.99K

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.29K

No position

Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $781.37

Yes position

US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $485.04

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $203.64

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.11

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $155.86

No position

Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.18

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.95

Yes position

Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.31

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.94

Yes position

Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$15.37

No position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$72.23

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$75.24

Yes position

Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$185.71

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?

Yes 88.3% 396.31 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Yes 16% 1,250 shares
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Yes 26.8% 373.13 shares
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 4.1% 2,926.83 shares
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 1.4% 14,494.62 shares
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 2.3% 13,119.23 shares
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 4.1% 2,439.02 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 87% 865.91 shares
US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Yes 99.6% 606.06 shares
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Yes 4.4% 1,704.55 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Yes 33% 1,515.15 shares
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Yes 16% 312.89 shares