Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $379.16
- Potential profit
- $379.16
- User PnL
- -$180
Polymarket Trader
Firkantbukser
0x31b7d2495a41fc79a8914e6ca26b523851a05770
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $140.39
- Realized PnL
- $353.46
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 23
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $154.23
- Potential profit
- $154.23
- User PnL
- -$125
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $70.13
- Potential profit
- $70.13
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Ends Jan 20, 2029- Implied probability
- 32%
- Current value
- $21.96
- Potential payout
- $68.63
- Potential profit
- $46.67
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- -$3.04
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $45.45
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Current value
- $22.65
- Potential payout
- $45.35
- Potential profit
- $22.7
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $2.65
No position
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40.5
- Potential profit
- $40.5
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $34.48
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $29.62
- Potential payout
- $32.73
- Potential profit
- $3.11
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.92
No position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.22
- Potential profit
- $28.22
- User PnL
- -$19.72
No position
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $4.44
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $23.33
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.56
Anthropic position
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $22.47
- Potential payout
- $25.97
- Potential profit
- $3.51
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $2.47
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.73
- Potential profit
- $22.73
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $3.81
- Potential payout
- $18.59
- Potential profit
- $14.78
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$1.19
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.18
- Potential profit
- $18.18
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $10.4
- Potential payout
- $16.13
- Potential profit
- $5.73
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.38
- Potential profit
- $15.38
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $8.31
- Potential payout
- $13.51
- Potential profit
- $5.2
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$1.69
Yes position
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 43%
- Current value
- $5.58
- Potential payout
- $12.99
- Potential profit
- $7.4
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- -$4.42
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $12.5
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $11.13
- Potential payout
- $11.24
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- User PnL
- $1.13
Yes position
Will Norway vs. Sweden end in a draw?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.85
- Potential profit
- $3.85
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Tim Cook say "Apple Intelligence" 5+ times during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.39
- Potential profit
- $1.39
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.42
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.94
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.43
No position
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.33
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.48
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.89
Yes position
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.77
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.22
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.83
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.48
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.39
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.96
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.61
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.6
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.99
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.25
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.65
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.32
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.2
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.94
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.77
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.6
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.39
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 89% 11.24 shares
- President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?No 18% 27.78 shares
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?No 7.1% 70.13 shares
- Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?No 85% 2.17 shares
- NBA Finals: Any Player to Record a Triple-Double?No 75% 2.67 shares
- Will Craig Federighi say "ChatGPT" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?No 79% 2.53 shares
- Will Tim Cook say "Apple Pay" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?No 75% 1.33 shares
- Will Tim Cook say "Apple Intelligence" 5+ times during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?Yes 72% 1.39 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 44% 22.73 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?No 29% 34.48 shares
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic 77% 25.97 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No 87% 10 shares