No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $253.1
- Potential profit
- $253.1
- User PnL
- -$2.09
Polymarket Trader
Hakadashi
0x322dc9e28997f159186b9c2a40c4ff40ab7adba7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $528.1
- Realized PnL
- $44.47
- Win rate
- 94.1%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 17
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $240.17
- Potential profit
- $240.17
- User PnL
- -$18.09
No position
Iran leadership change by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $123.64
- Potential payout
- $127.34
- Potential profit
- $3.69
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.73
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $100.28
- Potential payout
- $101.97
- Potential profit
- $1.68
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.78
Yes position
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
Ends Jul 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $38.64
- Potential payout
- $53.3
- Potential profit
- $14.66
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $7.05
Yes position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.9%
- Current value
- $20.06
- Potential payout
- $49
- Potential profit
- $28.94
- Multiplier
- 2.44x
- User PnL
- $4.29
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $35.02
- Potential payout
- $39.57
- Potential profit
- $4.55
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $28.52
- Potential payout
- $36.33
- Potential profit
- $7.81
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $3.6
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.14
- Potential profit
- $32.14
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $23.78
- Potential payout
- $28.14
- Potential profit
- $4.36
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$1.09
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $20.45
- Potential payout
- $27.82
- Potential profit
- $7.37
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $0.48
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $26.22
- Potential payout
- $27.46
- Potential profit
- $1.24
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $20.07
- Potential payout
- $20.24
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $4.69
- Potential payout
- $18.41
- Potential profit
- $13.71
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
Yes position
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $4.35
- Potential payout
- $15.53
- Potential profit
- $11.18
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$0.62
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $9.86
- Potential payout
- $11.95
- Potential profit
- $2.09
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $11.53
- Potential payout
- $11.57
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $1.58
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $10.35
- Potential payout
- $11.57
- Potential profit
- $1.21
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $10.59
- Potential payout
- $11.57
- Potential profit
- $0.98
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.64
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44%
- Current value
- $5.09
- Potential payout
- $11.56
- Potential profit
- $6.47
- Multiplier
- 2.27x
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $10.26
- Potential payout
- $10.47
- Potential profit
- $0.21
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $9.48
- Potential payout
- $10.36
- Potential profit
- $0.88
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $10.27
- Potential payout
- $10.28
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Iran leadership change by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $4.94
- Potential payout
- $5.4
- Potential profit
- $0.46
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.92
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.98
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.84
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.8
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.37
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.31
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67
No position
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.61
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.37
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.69x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.34
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No 89% 22.36 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No 86% 5.78 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 96% 10.36 shares
- Iran leadership change by July 31?No 96.2% 5.17 shares
- Iran leadership change by July 31?No 97.4% 20.43 shares
- Iran leadership change by September 30?No 92% 5.4 shares
- Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 27% 18.41 shares
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 32% 15.53 shares
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No 62% 8.02 shares
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No 72% 13.82 shares
- Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 31.9% 15.58 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes 43% 11.56 shares