No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $3.45K
- Potential payout
- $6.98K
- Potential profit
- $3.52K
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $116.8
Polymarket Trader
SUPERNOVA-
0x32698c6f006f583e523667a0d0081f1747681e7c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $9.29K
- Realized PnL
- $7.09K
- Win rate
- 95.8%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.66K
- Potential profit
- $3.66K
- User PnL
- -$1.2K
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Current value
- $2.46K
- Potential payout
- $3.47K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $432.38
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $100.75
- Potential payout
- $2.92K
- Potential profit
- $2.82K
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$1.4K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.88K
- Potential profit
- $2.88K
- User PnL
- -$806.47
No position
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $1.61K
- Potential payout
- $2.35K
- Potential profit
- $738.77
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $301.98
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.68K
- User PnL
- -$252
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.54K
- User PnL
- -$400.78
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $611.48
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $703.53
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- -$124.01
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.24K
- Potential profit
- $1.24K
- User PnL
- -$147.76
No position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- User PnL
- -$754.12
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $27.47
- Potential payout
- $1.02K
- Potential profit
- $990.05
- Multiplier
- 37.04x
- User PnL
- -$216.73
No position
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.02K
- Potential profit
- $1.02K
- User PnL
- -$712.87
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $255
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $744.99
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$285
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $68
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $732
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$132
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $704.68
- Potential payout
- $741.77
- Potential profit
- $37.09
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $338.47
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $94.44
- Potential profit
- $94.44
- User PnL
- -$10
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $44.46
- Potential profit
- $44.46
- User PnL
- -$7.95
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.14
- Potential profit
- $27.14
- User PnL
- -$22.53
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.25K
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- $1.48K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.47K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $980
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $549.99
Yes position
Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.76
Avalanche position
Avalanche vs. Oilers
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.25
Flyers position
Hurricanes vs. Flyers
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.36
Los Angeles Dodgers position
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.78
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.42
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.8
Miami Marlins position
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.6
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.74
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.83
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.03
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.11
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $8.61
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $8.6
Maple Leafs position
Stars vs. Maple Leafs
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.71
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.37
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.23
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$1.81
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 86% 500.32 shares
- Kash Patel out by June 30?No 95% 487.86 shares
- Kash Patel out by June 30?No 94% 204 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 62% 499.85 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ETUp 13% 22.72 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ETUp 23% 21.74 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ETDown 63% 19.41 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ETDown 51% 9.8 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ETDown 52% 9.62 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ETUp 97.5% 9.61 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ETUp 52% 9.62 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ETUp 27% 18.52 shares