Hermnann

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $201.01
Potential payout: $1.22K
Potential profit: $1.02K
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$235.99

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $705.92
Potential payout: $887.95
Potential profit: $182.03
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $5.93

No position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $723.74
Potential payout: $782.42
Potential profit: $58.68
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $23.74

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $527.12
Potential payout: $559.27
Potential profit: $32.16
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $27.12

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $29.04
Potential payout: $523.26
Potential profit: $494.22
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: -$15.96

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $53.18
Potential payout: $518.87
Potential profit: $465.68
Multiplier: 9.76x
User PnL: -$1.82

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 21.1%
Current value: $106.43
Potential payout: $505.62
Potential profit: $399.19
Multiplier: 4.75x
User PnL: $61.43

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.6%
Current value: $52.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $447.25
Multiplier: 9.48x
User PnL: -$32.25

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $25.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $474.75
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $114.04
Potential payout: $496.89
Potential profit: $382.86
Multiplier: 4.36x
User PnL: $34.04

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $30.42
Potential payout: $486.73
Potential profit: $456.31
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: -$24.58

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $17.55
Potential payout: $480.77
Potential profit: $463.22
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$7.45

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $165.73
Potential payout: $380.98
Potential profit: $215.26
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$112.27

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $48.44
Potential payout: $312.5
Potential profit: $264.06
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$151.56

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $285.71
User PnL: -$20

No position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $206.02
Potential payout: $240.96
Potential profit: $34.94
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $6.02

Yes position

Anduril IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $20.49
Potential payout: $195.1
Potential profit: $174.61
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$79.51

Yes position

Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $28.49
Potential payout: $189.94
Potential profit: $161.45
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$91.51

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $6.94
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $48.61
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $1.94

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $223.01

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.59

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.84

No position

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84

Yes position

Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.91

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.69

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.16

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $60.35

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.55

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.58

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.44

Yes position

Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.55

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.75

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.26

Yes position

Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.72

No position

US strike on Cuba by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.26

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $24.5

Yes position

Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.66

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.82

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.46

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.39

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?