No position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- User PnL
- -$7.51
Polymarket Trader
LukeAlpha
0x330278eb937dbe7c6db7ac01346fd9e920ee79c0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0.6
- Realized PnL
- $1.67K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 19, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $899.95
- Potential profit
- $899.95
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $700.73
- Potential profit
- $700.73
- User PnL
- -$7.01
Yes position
US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $700.01
- Potential profit
- $700.01
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $699.98
- Potential profit
- $699.98
- User PnL
- -$7
No position
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" this week? (February 8)
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $650.99
- Potential profit
- $650.99
- User PnL
- -$6.51
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $601.67
- Potential profit
- $601.67
- User PnL
- -$6.02
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600.02
- Potential profit
- $600.02
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.3
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $599.7
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.7
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.3
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $599.7
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.7
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $590.02
- Potential profit
- $590.02
- User PnL
- -$5.9
No position
AWS service disrupted by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $574.22
- Potential profit
- $574.22
- User PnL
- -$5.74
Yes position
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Bill Clinton charged by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $401.13
- Potential profit
- $401.13
- User PnL
- -$4.01
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $353.64
- Potential profit
- $353.64
- User PnL
- -$3.54
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $351.73
- Potential profit
- $351.73
- User PnL
- -$3.52
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.1
- Potential profit
- $350.1
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.09
- Potential profit
- $350.09
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.06
- Potential profit
- $350.06
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.04
- Potential profit
- $350.04
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.03
- Potential profit
- $350.03
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.02
- Potential profit
- $350.02
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.02
- Potential profit
- $350.02
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Don Lemon be criminally charged?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.01
- Potential profit
- $350.01
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.01
- Potential profit
- $350.01
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.01
- Potential profit
- $350.01
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.01
- Potential profit
- $350.01
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.01
- Potential profit
- $350.01
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.01
- Potential profit
- $350.01
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.01
- Potential profit
- $350.01
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.01
- Potential profit
- $350.01
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.01
- Potential profit
- $350.01
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.01
- Potential profit
- $350.01
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350.01
- Potential profit
- $350.01
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
US bank failure by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Russia enter Kurylivka by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Zakharova position
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Antonia Ruzic vs Anastasia Zakharova
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Halys position
Qatar Open: Arthur Fils vs Quentin Halys
Ends Feb 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $294.08
Yes position
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.5
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $168.45
No position
Ethereum all time high by October 31?
Ends Nov 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108
Yes position
Will Tran Cam Tu be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $73.02
No position
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.58
Yes position
Will Luong Cuong be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $50.53
Yes position
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $41.34
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $39.2
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.25
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24
No position
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $23.89
No position
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.96
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.35
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.37
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.43
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19
No position
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.52
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.5
Yes position
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.5
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends on March 29, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.5
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17
No position
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.5
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.3
Yes position
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15
Yes position
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.4
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.9
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.48
Yes position
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.52
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.5
Yes position
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.5
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 31, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.5
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.1
No position
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.6
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.3
Yes position
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Jan 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.23
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.5
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,350-$4,475 in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.5
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.81
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?Yes 0.7% 300 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?Yes 1% 129.65 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?Yes 1% 300 shares
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?No 0.1% 300 shares
- Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?Yes 2.4% 41.67 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?Yes 0.6% 274.65 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?Yes 2% 200 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 2.1% 271.01 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No 3% 300 shares
- Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Yes 1% 300 shares
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?No 2% 50 shares
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?Yes 1% 15 shares