Polymarket Trader

Ahj77

0x330a9e1f4d05bc3ce3df4330b8576153c52d8b66

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $46.08
Realized PnL: -$9.52
Win rate: 40.9%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 22
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $1.68
Potential payout: $50.04
Potential profit: $48.36
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $5.82
Potential payout: $36.36
Potential profit: $30.55
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $1.82

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $3.94
Potential payout: $25.32
Potential profit: $21.38
Multiplier: 6.43x
User PnL: $1.94

Yes position

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $23.5
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $8.8
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $1.2
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.1

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $8.73
Potential payout: $9.44
Potential profit: $0.71
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.73

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 24.9%
Current value: $1.86
Potential payout: $7.46
Potential profit: $5.6
Multiplier: 4.02x
User PnL: $0.86

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $5.31
Potential payout: $5.68
Potential profit: $0.37
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.31

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.41
Potential profit: $4.41
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $2.28
Potential payout: $3.77
Potential profit: $1.49
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $3.18
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $0.15
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5
Potential profit: $2.5
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $2.23
Potential payout: $2.35
Potential profit: $0.13
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $0.76
Potential payout: $1.47
Potential profit: $0.71
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$0.24

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.82

Yes position

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.22

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.51

Yes position

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

Yes position

Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.39

No position

Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.21

No position

Will Florian Notz (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Hugo Lapalus (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Einer Hedegart (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will there be at least 20 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.32

Yes position

Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.9

Yes position

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?

Yes 34% 8.82 shares
Will Florian Notz (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

No 99.6% 1 shares
Will Hugo Lapalus (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

No 99.9% 1 shares
Will Einer Hedegart (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Yes 81% 1.23 shares
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20?

Yes 76% 1.32 shares
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20?

Yes 93% 1.08 shares
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Yes 88% 3.41 shares
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Yes 89% 1.12 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Yes 19% 5.26 shares
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Yes 26% 7.69 shares
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Yes 8% 25 shares
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Yes 29% 10.34 shares