0x348xserenoo

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $27.2
Potential payout: $339.99
Potential profit: $312.79
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$4.4

Yes position

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.29
Potential payout: $190
Potential profit: $189.72
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $165.86
Potential profit: $165.77
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.42
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $119.58
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.16

Yes position

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.35

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $80
User PnL: -$0.48

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $79.8
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $0.2
User PnL: $8.25

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $76.2
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $3.8
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $6.43

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $67
Potential profit: $67
User PnL: -$1.34

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.18
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$0.58

Yes position

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Implied probability: 11.6%
Current value: $5.78
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $44.23
Multiplier: 8.66x
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $44.78
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $0.23
User PnL: $4.53

Yes position

Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.28
Potential profit: $43.28
User PnL: -$0.77

No position

Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$5.8

No position

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $40
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.28

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $39.82
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $0.18
User PnL: $3.84

No position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $36.6
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $3.4
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.75

Yes position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$4.94

No position

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $3.6
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $26.4
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$2.1

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $29.76
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $0.24
User PnL: $5.06

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $5.55
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $24.45
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$7.65

Yes position

New pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $2.85
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $27.15
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$1.03

Yes position

Netanyahu out by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$0.18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.4

No position

Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.11

No position

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Implied probability: 92%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $48.19

No position

Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

Implied probability: 96.3%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $46.63

No position

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $36.34

No position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.62

Yes position

No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.96

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.39

Yes position

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the February meeting?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.01

Yes position

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the March Meeting?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.97

No position

Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Implied probability: 97.2%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $20.24

No position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.69

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on February 17?

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.66

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.19

No position

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.05

No position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.69

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.06

Yes position

Will Venstre win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.4

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.31

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.17

No position

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.97

No position

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?