No position
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $1.2K
- Potential payout
- $1.44K
- Potential profit
- $237.54
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.18
Polymarket Trader
0x34a42279AD
0x34a42279adc31650b5f80e80445ab37cf5754cc7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.51K
- Realized PnL
- $4.57K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $292.27
- Potential payout
- $379.57
- Potential profit
- $87.3
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $79.17
Yes position
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $2.16
- Potential payout
- $254.68
- Potential profit
- $252.52
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
Yes position
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $6.19
- Potential payout
- $145.63
- Potential profit
- $139.44
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- $2.52
Yes position
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $4.06
- Potential payout
- $100.29
- Potential profit
- $96.23
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $3.9
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $16.1
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$7.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $579.27
No position
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $456.87
No position
100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $397.39
Yes position
Will FDP be part of the next German government?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $371.38
Yes position
Will Michelle Obama be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $227.52
Yes position
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $195.5
Yes position
Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $185
No position
10+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.74
Yes position
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $179.3
Yes position
Will Hillary Clinton be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $174.88
Yes position
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $160.65
Yes position
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $149.63
Yes position
Was Trump hacked?
Ends Jan 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $149
No position
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $142
Yes position
Will the AFD be part of the next German government?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $129
Yes position
Will the Greens be part of the next German government?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $124.34
Germany position
UEFA Women’s Euro: France vs. Germany (To Advance)
Ends Jul 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124
Yes position
Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $102.42
Yes position
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $101.24
Yes position
Will Wes Moore be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $98.67
Yes position
Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $90
No position
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $84
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.28
Yes position
Will J. B. Pritzker be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $82.97
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 27% 165.75 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 18% 165.74 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 24% 50 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 25% 30 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 24.8% 50 shares
- Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?No 66% 40 shares
- Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?No 66.5% 59.53 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 27% 100 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 22.3% 60 shares
- Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes 59.8% 200 shares
- Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?No 96.5% 200 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 29% 100 shares