0x34a9...4cfd

Implied probability: 8.8%
Current value: $74.12
Potential payout: $847.07
Potential profit: $772.95
Multiplier: 11.43x
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $3.22
Potential payout: $585.4
Potential profit: $582.18
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$3.22

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $191.52
Potential payout: $524.7
Potential profit: $333.19
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$82.76

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $15.12
Potential payout: $414.25
Potential profit: $399.13
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$1.45

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $374.99
Potential profit: $374.8
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.31

No position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $5.17
Potential payout: $356.25
Potential profit: $351.08
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $35.19
Potential payout: $281.5
Potential profit: $246.31
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $9.78

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $212.26
Potential payout: $277.47
Potential profit: $65.21
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $44.34

No position

Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 93.9%
Current value: $224.05
Potential payout: $238.61
Potential profit: $14.56
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $28.39

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $32.52
Potential payout: $232.3
Potential profit: $199.78
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$11.62

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $204.16
Potential payout: $209.83
Potential profit: $5.67
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $4.25

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $188.77
Potential payout: $188.86
Potential profit: $0.09
User PnL: $2.68

Yes position

Will Decibel launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.64
Potential payout: $181.8
Potential profit: $181.16
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$1.36

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $148.92
Potential profit: $148.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$60.44

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $1.38
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $123.63
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $5.63
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $119.38
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $0.63

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.68
Potential payout: $123.44
Potential profit: $122.76
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$4.07

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $1.55
Potential payout: $114.97
Potential profit: $113.42
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$2.08

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 38.4%
Current value: $44.05
Potential payout: $114.72
Potential profit: $70.67
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $9.41

No position

Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $108.51
Potential payout: $112.33
Potential profit: $3.82
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $11.91

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $72.31
Potential payout: $108.74
Potential profit: $36.43
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $22.29

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $104.27
Potential payout: $105.7
Potential profit: $1.43
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $4.28

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $102.57
Potential payout: $103.24
Potential profit: $0.67
User PnL: $4.65

No position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $102.08
Potential payout: $102.34
Potential profit: $0.26
User PnL: $2.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $901.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $544

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $519.02

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $462.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $400

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $390.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.06

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $372.76

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $359.94

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $354.55

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $336.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $241.57

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.43

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $235.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.74

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $213.12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $207.48

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.43

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.45

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.55

B8 position

Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.5

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.47

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.77

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.32

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.22

Sharks position

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.28

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.68

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.66

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.37

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.28

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.69

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.95

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.75

No position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.89

Yes position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET