No position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30K
- Potential profit
- $30K
- User PnL
- -$30
Polymarket Trader
toutiege
0x34ab676b682e8132484a1c041f2c67706f063eb5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.5K
- Realized PnL
- $33.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.79K
- Potential profit
- $27.79K
- User PnL
- -$55.96
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $39.18
- Potential payout
- $26.12K
- Potential profit
- $26.08K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$121.81
Yes position
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $15K
- User PnL
- -$15
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12K
- Potential profit
- $12K
- User PnL
- -$21.97
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Current value
- $665.44
- Potential payout
- $11.37K
- Potential profit
- $10.71K
- Multiplier
- 17.09x
- User PnL
- -$1.45K
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.5K
- Potential profit
- $10.5K
- User PnL
- -$14
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.6K
- Potential profit
- $8.6K
- User PnL
- -$1.07K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.15K
- Potential profit
- $8.15K
- User PnL
- -$2.36K
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $41.56
- Potential payout
- $7.56K
- Potential profit
- $7.52K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$115.91
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.4K
- Potential profit
- $7.4K
- User PnL
- -$1.77K
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $917.58
- Potential payout
- $7.34K
- Potential profit
- $6.42K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$326.01
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $7K
- User PnL
- -$16
Yes position
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.31K
- Potential profit
- $6.31K
- User PnL
- -$6.31
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.22K
- Potential profit
- $6.22K
- User PnL
- -$1.17K
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $372.7
- Potential payout
- $6.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.84K
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- -$664.86
No position
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.03K
- Potential profit
- $6.03K
- User PnL
- -$165.97
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $6K
- User PnL
- -$460
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.6K
- Potential profit
- $5.6K
- User PnL
- -$228.03
Yes position
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.2K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- User PnL
- -$107
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.3%
- Current value
- $1.98K
- Potential payout
- $4.8K
- Potential profit
- $2.82K
- Multiplier
- 2.42x
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Yes position
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $357
- Potential payout
- $4.46K
- Potential profit
- $4.11K
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- $83.02
No position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.66K
- Potential profit
- $3.66K
- User PnL
- -$1.01K
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 25%
- Current value
- $875
- Potential payout
- $3.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.63K
- Multiplier
- 4.00x
- User PnL
- -$481.99
No position
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.22K
- Potential profit
- $3.22K
- User PnL
- -$2.19K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.03K
- Potential profit
- $3.03K
- User PnL
- -$1.46K
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.99K
- Potential profit
- $2.99K
- User PnL
- -$146.41
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.86K
- Potential profit
- $2.86K
- User PnL
- -$371.86
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $317.07
- Potential payout
- $2.64K
- Potential profit
- $2.33K
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- $4.36
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $532.51
- Potential payout
- $2.6K
- Potential profit
- $2.07K
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- $218.61
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.56K
- Potential profit
- $2.56K
- User PnL
- -$857.36
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.29K
- Potential profit
- $2.29K
- User PnL
- -$126.04
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.15K
- Potential profit
- $2.15K
- User PnL
- -$1.21K
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.09K
- Potential profit
- $2.09K
- User PnL
- -$401.48
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $101.84
- Potential payout
- $2.08K
- Potential profit
- $1.98K
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- -$115.34
Yes position
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $69.42
- Potential payout
- $2.07K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$137.8
Yes position
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.05K
- Potential profit
- $2.05K
- User PnL
- -$57.86
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.04K
- Potential profit
- $2.04K
- User PnL
- -$102.35
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$46
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.65K
- Potential profit
- $1.65K
- User PnL
- -$119.57
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $231.22
- Potential payout
- $1.49K
- Potential profit
- $1.26K
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$18.37
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.49K
- Potential profit
- $1.49K
- User PnL
- -$18.26
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$249.11
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$13
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$12
N
No position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.52K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.92K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.89K
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72K
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.69K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27K
No position
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.18K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.04K
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $992.45
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $968.1
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $955.94
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $763.05
Yes position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $717.84
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $687.85
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $683.42
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $666.5
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $647.77
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $554.14
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $552
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $516.24
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $508.57
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $494.78
No position
X Money released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $417.41
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $408.22
No position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $398.33
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $388.78
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $388
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $377.24
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $373.54
No position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $344.73
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $339.84
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $323.92
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $320.5
No position
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $315.86
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $304.81
No position
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $295.31
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $291.62
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $272
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $262.69
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $253.09
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $252
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $244.34
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $244.14
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $234.61
No position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $231.7
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $230.45
No position
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $228.95
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $227.44
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes 99.9% 0.55 shares
- Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?Yes 8% 311.49 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?No 1.6% 1,000 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 16% 2,730.41 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes 17% 1.15 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes 28.4% 1,253.41 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No 46.2% 26.4 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No 8% 1,012.75 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?Yes 91% 304.5 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 74% 2.43 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Yes 0.4% 7,000.01 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 28.2% 531 shares