Polymarket Trader

successionline

0x34ce4f5910e0a47559fa09b3ddedce368231d421

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $31.53
Realized PnL: $16.26
Win rate: 44.4%
Open positions: 2
Closed positions: 9
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $31.53
Potential payout: $274.21
Potential profit: $242.68
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$160.61

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.02
Potential profit: $41.02
User PnL: -$19.69

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.47

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.88

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$8.33

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$11.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$51.91

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Yes 70.1% 274.21 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 58.3% 193.95 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

No 0.1% 371.14 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Yes 60% 113.33 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

No 2.1% 370.56 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

No 2.7% 741.7 shares
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Yes 42% 80.12 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Down 98% 10.7 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Down 48% 41.02 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Down 46% 10.7 shares
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Yes 13% 166.66 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Up 41% 120.17 shares