No position
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $161.18
- Potential payout
- $167.11
- Potential profit
- $5.93
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $24.62
Polymarket Trader
kwarent
0x351049400679d2f80e4b0c5ae6fb407e7678d8d3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $608.07
- Realized PnL
- $674.93
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $96.29
- Potential payout
- $105.23
- Potential profit
- $8.94
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $9.16
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $54.83
- Potential payout
- $55.05
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- User PnL
- $1.57
No position
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $51.43
- Potential payout
- $51.72
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- User PnL
- $1.43
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $19.15
- Potential payout
- $45.06
- Potential profit
- $25.91
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$0.85
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $42.21
- Potential payout
- $42.87
- Potential profit
- $0.66
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.21
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $39.44
- Potential payout
- $41.15
- Potential profit
- $1.71
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.56
No position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $35.86
- Potential payout
- $35.99
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- User PnL
- $0.86
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $29.51
- Potential payout
- $32.61
- Potential profit
- $3.1
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.49
No position
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $31.13
- Potential payout
- $31.23
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- User PnL
- $1.13
No position
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $15.25
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $1.42
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $0.59
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $16.08
- Multiplier
- 28.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
No position
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $16.01
- Potential payout
- $16.48
- Potential profit
- $0.47
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.01
No position
Weed rescheduled by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $15.18
- Potential payout
- $15.34
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.18
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.44
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.41
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.57
No position
Spain snap election called in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.52
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.34
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 18?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.07
No position
French election called by October 17?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.52
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.13
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.77
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 19?
Ends Feb 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.64
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 8?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.23
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 8?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.69
No position
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.37
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 9?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.69
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.09
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.94
Yes position
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.68
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 12?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.15
No position
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.64
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 5?
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.95
No position
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.67
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 2?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.52
No position
GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.46
No position
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.42
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23?No 44.4% 45.06 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23?No 92% 32.61 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 23?No 97.2% 41.15 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21?No 72% 41.67 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21?No 72% 27.78 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21?No 97.5% 30.77 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20?No 91.4% 43.76 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19?No 94% 15.96 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19?No 94.1% 21.24 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19?No 94.4% 52.97 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18?No 93% 23.66 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18?No 92.9% 53.82 shares