Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $84.26
- Potential payout
- $617.28
- Potential profit
- $533.02
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$15.74
Polymarket Trader
simonshan
0x353b5665c1588231b75e0554a1ea24033998fc7b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $302.67
- Realized PnL
- $53.23
- Win rate
- 80%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 5
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.8%
- Current value
- $112.86
- Potential payout
- $571.43
- Potential profit
- $458.57
- Multiplier
- 5.06x
- User PnL
- $12.86
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $105.56
- Potential payout
- $222.22
- Potential profit
- $116.67
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $5.56
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.97
Yes position
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.25
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.02
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $3.99
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 45% 222.22 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 17.5% 571.43 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.8% 110.86 shares
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16.2% 617.28 shares
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?Yes 67% 149.25 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes 99.7% 89.28 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 99.8% 161.29 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 62% 161.29 shares
- Netanyahu out by March 31?Yes 5.3% 1,886.79 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 90.2% 110.86 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes 56% 89.29 shares