Polymarket Trader

Olcan

0x355e5ae20cc1a3a2164f818e4bac8d22dd72a038

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $19.9K
Realized PnL: $17.98K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $2.4K
Potential payout: $3.56K
Potential profit: $1.16K
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $46.47

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $2.66K
Potential payout: $3.3K
Potential profit: $643.49
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $68.24

No position

Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 91.4%
Current value: $2.03K
Potential payout: $2.22K
Potential profit: $191.03
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$26.64

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25.9%
Current value: $548.77
Potential payout: $2.12K
Potential profit: $1.57K
Multiplier: 3.87x
User PnL: -$624.79

No position

Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $1.74K
Potential payout: $2.04K
Potential profit: $295.56
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $653.68

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $1.45K
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $152
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $155.74

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $1.39K
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $96.83
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $147.73

No position

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $1.18K
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $102.9
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $335.45

Yes position

Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $155.48
Potential payout: $1.24K
Potential profit: $1.09K
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$149.18

No position

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 55%
Current value: $564.15
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $461.58
Multiplier: 1.82x
User PnL: $54.28

No position

Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53.3%
Current value: $512.16
Potential payout: $961.81
Potential profit: $449.65
Multiplier: 1.88x
User PnL: $113.9

No position

Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $892.43
Potential payout: $954.47
Potential profit: $62.04
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $164.94

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $603.01
Potential payout: $900.01
Potential profit: $297
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$88

No position

Obama federally charged before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $775.57
Potential payout: $821.14
Potential profit: $45.57
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $218.3

No position

Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 95.2%
Current value: $759.89
Potential payout: $798.2
Potential profit: $38.31
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $87.26

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $346.75
Potential payout: $779.22
Potential profit: $432.47
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: $4.43

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $98.12
Potential payout: $718.86
Potential profit: $620.74
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$14.01

Yes position

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $14.51
Potential payout: $677.82
Potential profit: $663.31
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: $10.06

No position

Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $465.51
Potential payout: $593.01
Potential profit: $127.5
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $23.51

No position

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $426.48
Potential payout: $516.94
Potential profit: $90.47
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $13.58

No position

Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $515.7
Potential profit: $515.7
User PnL: -$25.8

No position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $407.45
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $92.55
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $12.45

No position

Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $182.07
Potential payout: $466.84
Potential profit: $284.77
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: -$48.94

No position

Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 66%
Current value: $297
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $153
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: $63

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $2.57K

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $2.41K

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 3?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2K

Yes position

Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $973.7

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $944.79

Yes position

Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next press briefing?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $841.83

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $762.16

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $720.2

No position

Grok 4.20 released by January 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $626.28

No position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $592.74

No position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $567.67

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $512.59

Yes position

Will MrBeast's trap video get between 60 and 65 million views on week 1?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $506.61

Yes position

Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025?

Ends Nov 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $491.54

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $472.99

No position

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $470.66

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: $443.33

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $441.26

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $435.29

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $430.26

No position

Will Starmer say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $407.95

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 50.5 and 51.0 million views on day 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $394.98

No position

Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $393.87

No position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $368.95

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Yes 86.3% 14.58 shares
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Yes 75% 20 shares
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Yes 88% 8.33 shares
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?

Yes 24% 0.52 shares
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?

Yes 27% 22 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Yes 52% 6.92 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Yes 51% 5 shares
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?

Yes 22.9% 22.52 shares
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30?

No 5% 515.7 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Yes 51% 9.6 shares
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?

No 75% 50 shares
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?

No 72% 50 shares