0x35bC4A415A5c89c7830D49c4873505be646EA8CC-1770175190660

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $960.08
Potential profit: $960.08
User PnL: -$1.92

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $3.68
Potential payout: $565.89
Potential profit: $562.21
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$1.32

Yes position

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $480.04
Potential profit: $480.04
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $474.58
Potential profit: $474.58
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400.2
Potential profit: $400.2
User PnL: -$4.8

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $374.07
Potential profit: $374.07
User PnL: -$25.4

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $371.43
Potential profit: $371.43
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $320.04
Potential profit: $320.04
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $317.36
Potential profit: $317.36
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $240.04
Potential profit: $240.04
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $4.65
Potential payout: $217.39
Potential profit: $212.74
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$0.35

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $5.1
Potential payout: $208.33
Potential profit: $203.23
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $2.92
Potential payout: $194.42
Potential profit: $191.5
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$2.08

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $4.07
Potential payout: $193.67
Potential profit: $189.6
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: -$0.93

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $4.58
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $162.08
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.71
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.14
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $4.96
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $78.38
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $68.82
Potential profit: $68.82
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.38
Potential profit: $43.38
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $5.11
Potential payout: $32.05
Potential profit: $26.94
Multiplier: 6.27x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.06
Potential profit: $30.06
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.61
Potential profit: $11.61
User PnL: -$0.96

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $32.53

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.22

Yes position

Will Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.14

Pacers position

Pacers vs. Knicks

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.84

Yes position

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $3.21

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.95

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.97

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.79

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.59

Yes position

GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.22

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.22

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down on February 5?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?