Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $282.08
- Potential payout
- $2.09K
- Potential profit
- $1.81K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$121.49
Polymarket Trader
AntonioTheMerchant
0x36a65ec3cdd1b971fb672ea5dcdf52f40ba08ae2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $413.94
- Realized PnL
- $2.79K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $99.23
- Potential payout
- $1.53K
- Potential profit
- $1.43K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$95.77
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $11.17
- Potential payout
- $269.19
- Potential profit
- $258.02
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$32.17
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $21.46
- Potential payout
- $138.44
- Potential profit
- $116.98
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$67.42
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $82.67
- Potential profit
- $82.67
- User PnL
- -$21.84
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $762.36
Yes position
Biden drops out of presidential race?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $392.34
Yes position
Will another person be the next President of Iran?
Ends Jul 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $290.54
No position
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $215.7
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 14?
Ends Mar 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122.86
No position
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal by Friday?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.2
Yes position
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105
No position
Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.31
No position
Will Saeed Jalili be the next President of Iran?
Ends Jul 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.13
Yes position
Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball?
Ends Aug 11, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.63
Yes position
Will Kaylee McKeowan (AUS) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke?
Ends Jul 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50
No position
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50
Yes position
Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis?
Ends Aug 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.67
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.34
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.21
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.69
No position
Trump and Biden both win nomination?
Ends Sep 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.36
No position
Will Biden's 538 approval reach 40% in July?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.9
Yes position
Will Trump post on X again before election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.17
Yes position
Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?
Ends Mar 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.49
No position
Israel military action against Iran in August?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28
Yes position
Ethereum above $3,100 on July 19?
Ends Jul 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Yes 32% 5.75 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Yes 0.8% 230.76 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Yes 16.1% 269.19 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 20?Yes 73% 43.34 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 19?Yes 99.1% 31.92 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 19?Yes 57% 31.93 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 81% 22.47 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 64.2% 138.44 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Yes 26% 76.92 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Yes 13% 230.77 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Yes 6.8% 627.47 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 23.3% 1,089.47 shares