Polymarket Trader

Asperatus

@andjfall

0x36a7e80b487b26eebce266da0640e33dd4651aea

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.68K
Realized PnL: $3.86K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $50
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $99.95K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $292.5
Potential payout: $45K
Potential profit: $44.71K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$32.49

Yes position

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $288.51
Potential payout: $44.39K
Potential profit: $44.1K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $22.19

Yes position

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $260
Potential payout: $40K
Potential profit: $39.74K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$4.48

Yes position

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $260
Potential payout: $40K
Potential profit: $39.74K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$59.96

Yes position

Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $234.85
Potential payout: $31.31K
Potential profit: $31.08K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $4.16

Yes position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $225
Potential payout: $30K
Potential profit: $29.77K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$4.74

Yes position

Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $193.94
Potential payout: $29.84K
Potential profit: $29.64K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $30.52

Yes position

Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $184.48
Potential payout: $28.38K
Potential profit: $28.2K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $14.19

Yes position

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $156.17
Potential payout: $20.82K
Potential profit: $20.67K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$12.66

Yes position

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $130
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $19.87K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $10.4

Yes position

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $130
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $19.87K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $14.68

Yes position

Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $130
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $19.87K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $12.58

Yes position

Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $130
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $19.87K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $12.04

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $112.5
Potential payout: $15K
Potential profit: $14.89K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $142.5
Potential payout: $15K
Potential profit: $14.86K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$2.15

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $127.5
Potential payout: $15K
Potential profit: $14.87K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$27.13

Yes position

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $97.5
Potential payout: $15K
Potential profit: $14.9K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$7.48

Yes position

Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $91.99
Potential payout: $14.15K
Potential profit: $14.06K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $4.25

Yes position

Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $87.45
Potential payout: $13.45K
Potential profit: $13.37K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $6.73

Yes position

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $105
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.9K
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $65
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.94K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $1.18

Yes position

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $125
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.88K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: $2.01

Yes position

Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $65
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.94K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $497.61

Yes position

Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $318.53

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.9%
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: $306.63

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $294.41

Yes position

BNB all time high by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $266.57

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.4%
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $239.55

Yes position

Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $177.59

Yes position

Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $159.89

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.19

Yes position

Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $125.65

No position

Moonbirds FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.94

Yes position

Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $116.41

Yes position

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $111.91

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.5%
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: $102.76

Yes position

Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $100

Yes position

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $98.64

Yes position

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.2%
Multiplier: 46.51x
User PnL: $92.52

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $91.62

Yes position

Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $85.35

No position

US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.85

Yes position

Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $81.73

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.7%
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $78.27

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.24

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $76.49

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

No 45% 200 shares
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

No 72% 200 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 57.6% 105.47 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

No 99.5% 40 shares
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Vitality 38% 49.17 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Yes 42.4% 20.3 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 93.5% 64.93 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 93.3% 36.1 shares
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

Vitality 82% 21.58 shares
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

Vitality 62% 5 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Yes 40.7% 133 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

No 64.9% 25.66 shares