Yes position
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $17.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $982.5
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Polymarket Trader
KierStarmer
0x3790d77cb668e6cd0635f2a20449a2256ed1c6a8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $254.4
- Realized PnL
- $252.09
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.1%
- Current value
- $184.2
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $15.8
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $17
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $83
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $35.7
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $24.3
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $17.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.07
Yes position
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.91
Yes position
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.7
No position
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.43
No position
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.75
Yes position
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $12.9
Yes position
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $12.22
Yes position
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.99
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.86
No position
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.8
Yes position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.36
Yes position
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.06
Yes position
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.55
No position
Thailand x Cambodia declare war by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 3?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.29
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.42
No position
Will Keir Starmer say "Liz" or "Truss" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$14
Yes position
Rachel Reeves out as Chancellor of the Exchequer by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?No 55% 200 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No 61% 163.93 shares
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No 99.2% 108.61 shares
- Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Yes 1.6% 21.48 shares
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No 92.1% 108.62 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 41% 79.33 shares
- Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?No 6% 500 shares
- Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Yes 62.7% 140.97 shares
- Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes 52% 21.46 shares
- Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes 52% 30 shares
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Yes 26% 16.15 shares
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 3?Yes 97.1% 10 shares