Over position
New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $298.82
- Potential payout
- $892
- Potential profit
- $593.18
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$57.98
Polymarket Trader
marsilius
0x381c652bc062ce25fa3d2eab5afbcb2e6027dae1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $380.17
- Realized PnL
- $4.12K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $299
- Potential profit
- $299
- User PnL
- -$74.75
No position
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $53.96
- Potential payout
- $71
- Potential profit
- $17.04
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $14.91
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.6%
- Current value
- $23.23
- Potential payout
- $32
- Potential profit
- $8.77
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $3.46
Yes position
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $4
- Potential payout
- $4
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $3.28
Yes position
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $0.16
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $0.84
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $468.94
Yes position
Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $448.2
Yes position
Will South Africa win on 2026-03-31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $389.61
Yes position
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $375.56
Al Hilal Saudi Club position
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5)
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $367.54
Yes position
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $226.68
Yes position
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-04-18?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $225.12
Over position
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5
Ends Dec 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $219.76
Under position
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.7
Yes position
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $144.18
Under position
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5
Ends Dec 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.92
Yes position
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.49
Yes position
Will Sorry, Baby win Best Screenplay at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.63
Yes position
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $92.6
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.5
No position
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.23
No position
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $72.33
Yes position
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.13
Yes position
Anduril IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $67.96
Yes position
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?
Ends Dec 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.61
Up position
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 4PM ET
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.88
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $53.04
Yes position
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- $41.15
No position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $35.49
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No 97.9% 170 shares
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No 98% 644 shares
- Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?No 6% 433 shares
- Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?No 6% 523 shares
- Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?No 6% 275 shares
- Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?No 66% 663 shares
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No 88% 814 shares
- Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?No 68% 663 shares
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No 0.3% 197 shares
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Yes 15% 10 shares
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No 82% 810 shares
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No 81% 810 shares