robotictrader

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $365.34
Potential payout: $384.57
Potential profit: $19.23
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $16.37

Yes position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $67.22
Potential payout: $88.99
Potential profit: $21.77
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$6.19

No position

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $74.66
Potential payout: $79.85
Potential profit: $5.19
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.56

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $61.68
Potential payout: $67.41
Potential profit: $5.73
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $11.91

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 93.3%
Current value: $61.42
Potential payout: $65.83
Potential profit: $4.41
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.91

No position

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Implied probability: 87.2%
Current value: $48.44
Potential payout: $55.55
Potential profit: $7.11
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $1.6

No position

Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June?

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $52.02
Potential payout: $53.44
Potential profit: $1.42
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.04

No position

Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $49.28
Potential payout: $50.88
Potential profit: $1.6
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.92

No position

Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $43.52
Potential payout: $43.89
Potential profit: $0.37
User PnL: $1.96

No position

Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $40.04
Potential payout: $41.47
Potential profit: $1.43
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.97

Yes position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.93
Potential profit: $35.93
User PnL: -$21.24

No position

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $15.7
Potential payout: $26.84
Potential profit: $11.14
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$3.09

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $24.24
Potential payout: $26.78
Potential profit: $2.54
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $7.36

No position

Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $25.86
Potential payout: $26.41
Potential profit: $0.55
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.95

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $23.47
Potential payout: $25.65
Potential profit: $2.18
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $21.9
Potential payout: $25.61
Potential profit: $3.71
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $19.82
Potential payout: $24.77
Potential profit: $4.95
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $2.13

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $18.67
Potential payout: $23.93
Potential profit: $5.26
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: -$1.15

No position

Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $1.81
Potential payout: $21.25
Potential profit: $19.44
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$9.98

No position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.85
Potential profit: $20.85
User PnL: -$16.56

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $17.3
Potential payout: $19.89
Potential profit: $2.59
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $2.59

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $19.8
Potential profit: $18.81
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $19.34
Potential profit: $19.04
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $18.56
Potential payout: $18.85
Potential profit: $0.29
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.08

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.32

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.14

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.28

No position

Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.38

Yes position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.02

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.82

Yes position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.5

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.15

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.13

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.21

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.05

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.43

No position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.26

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.02

Yes position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.6

Yes position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.97

No position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.86

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.44

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.41

No position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.33

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.21

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.05

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.82

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?