No position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $2.42K
- Potential payout
- $2.57K
- Potential profit
- $145.15
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $259.88
Polymarket Trader
HotspringRetreat
0x389b5b17981f564dbe58482f46e5b7e96784e0a5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.42K
- Realized PnL
- $211.86
- Win rate
- 93.3%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 15
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.23
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.32
No position
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.45
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.51
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.5
Yes position
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.46
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.36
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.45
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.21
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
No position
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.15
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.1
Yes position
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.96
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 84.2% 2,569 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?No 99.8% 2,184 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?No 99.7% 2,151 shares
- Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?No 99% 2,144.81 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes 99.9% 2,103.21 shares
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No 95.8% 1,000 shares