Polymarket Trader

Alphinaud

0x38ba9ae1621c736faef7ddfb2c92b8533c9b2432

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $39.29
Realized PnL: $177.85
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 2
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 33.2%
Current value: $32.12
Potential payout: $96.75
Potential profit: $64.63
Multiplier: 3.01x
User PnL: $12.12

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $7.16
Potential payout: $58.48
Potential profit: $51.32
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$2.84

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.72

No position

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.13

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.84

Spirit position

Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.59

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.81

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.83

No position

Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.58

No position

Will Trump say "Too Big to Rig" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?

Ends Mar 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.53

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Ends Mar 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.5

Yes position

Will Iran strike UAE again in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.98

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.85

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.98

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.79

No position

Will Trump say "Sacrifice" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.74

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.73

G2 position

Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.98

No position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.37

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.31

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.09

Yes position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.94

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.91

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.71

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.69

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

No 59% 13.86 shares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 17.1% 58.48 shares
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

No 57% 9.39 shares
Valorant: BBL Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega

BBL Esports 17% 32.24 shares
Valorant: BBL Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega

BBL Esports 77% 32.24 shares
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A

Spirit 82% 20.62 shares
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A

Spirit 77% 42.56 shares
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

No 68% 29.41 shares
Will Trump post "Charlie" or "Kirk" this week on Truth Social?

No 53% 4.85 shares
Will Trump post "Charlie" or "Kirk" this week on Truth Social?

No 55% 16.29 shares
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Yes 0.6% 14.7 shares
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?

No 0.4% 3.8 shares