Polymarket Trader

guanda1990

0x38fdf3f7be9580b6610441245974953d7d8bc6bb

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.46K
Realized PnL: $2.96K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.01K
Potential profit: $2.01K
User PnL: -$88.26

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$104

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $37
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.96K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $1.03K
User PnL: -$174.25

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $58.42
Potential payout: $920
Potential profit: $861.58
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: -$1.38

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $55.13
Potential payout: $750
Potential profit: $694.88
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$6.38

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 34.2%
Current value: $187.83
Potential payout: $550
Potential profit: $362.18
Multiplier: 2.93x
User PnL: $82.77

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $540
Potential profit: $540
User PnL: -$102.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $522.72
Potential profit: $522.72
User PnL: -$220.63

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $49
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $351
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $332.87
Potential profit: $332.87
User PnL: -$218.62

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.8%
Current value: $61.88
Potential payout: $330
Potential profit: $268.13
Multiplier: 5.33x
User PnL: $1.16

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 5?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$11.1

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $289.05
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $10.95
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $7.45

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $255.71
Potential profit: $255.71
User PnL: -$71.67

No position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $231.25
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $18.75
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200.22
Potential profit: $200.22
User PnL: -$81.27

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $173
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $27
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $13

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $197.4
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $2.6
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $13.7

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $121
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $79
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $9

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$184

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$44.3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $483.82

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $301.71

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $301.28

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $203.34

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.4

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.53

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.12

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $109.4

No position

Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 92%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $99

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.11

Yes position

Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.45

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.84

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51

Eagles position

Eagles vs. Commanders

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.29

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.12

Yes position

Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.94

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18.4% 110 shares
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 6.5% 920 shares
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10% 400 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18.4% 220 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 8.2% 750 shares
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?

No 93.7% 100 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 27.1% 150 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

No 96.7% 100 shares
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

No 98% 100 shares
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Yes 62% 50 shares
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

No 98.7% 9.33 shares
US strike on Cuba by December 31?

No 64% 100 shares